801
FXUS64 KSHV 281807 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
107 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
- THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH
OUT WEST LIFTS ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE NE INTO THE REGION.
- THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY USHER THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST
BY LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND IT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 170
UNTIL 7 P.M. THIS EVENING. THIS INCLUDES COUNTIES AND PARISHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF OUR I-20 CORRIDOR ARE INCLUDED FROM MINEOLA, TO
LONGVIEW AND SHREVEPORT AND THEN FROM MINDEN TO FARMERVILLE. KEEP
IN MIND DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE INTERACTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, WE MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN TEXAS ADDED TO THIS WATCH. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE TO SPREAD DEEPER
ACROSS OUR FOUR-STATE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT IS GOING TO FOLLOW DOWN QUICKLY BEHIND THIS HUGE CONVECTIVE
ASSIST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATING SPRING STORM. DAMAGING WINDS, VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING. /24/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHILE OUR REGION WAS LARGELY SPARED FROM CONVECTION ON MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT HELD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
THAT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE CASE LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY ADVANCES IN THE REGION. GIVEN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO FIRE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS EARLY AS THE MIDDAY
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY.
IN ADDITION, A SFC LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH TX WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING
SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE CAPPING INVERSION COULD
HOLD LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING AS WELL CLOSER
TO I-20 AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONTAL
INFLUENCE AND GREATER FORCING ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN HALF AS WELL WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EXPANDING NEARLY
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK TO INCLUDE ALL
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, TAPERING TO SLIGHT RISK
FARTHER SOUTH OVER MUCH OF OUR REMAINING CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW COUNTIES IN DEEP EAST TX. PARTICULARLY CONCERNING IS THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY NEAR 3" IN DIAMETER OVER PARTS OF NE
TEXAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME SW AR AND NW LA WHERE THE BEST
DEEP-LAYER IS LIKELY TO RESIDE. AS INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED DURING
THE AFTERNOON, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL FORMATION
INITIALLY TO THE WEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX WITH GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION INTO OUR REGION. THUS, THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES IS
CERTAINLY IN PLAY AS WELL FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20.
AS THE EVENT EVOLVES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THESE STORMS
MAY EVOLVE/MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH AN EXPANSIVE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE EVENT SO THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY
COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN IN REGARD TO TIMING AND OVERALL
IMPACTS. REGARDLESS, THE BEST ADVICE IS TO PLAN FOR AN ACTIVE NEXT
24 HOURS OF WEATHER THAT MAY EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20 AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH NEAR
THE COAST BEFORE STALLING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS BAJA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND TX BY
LATE WEEK WITH ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK, AND RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY RETURNED TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, AS AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH
AC CIGS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD E. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE LA, AND WILL AFFECT MLU
THROUGH 20Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY AFFECT TXK/ELD, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIRE BY/AFTER 00Z OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING, AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35KTS, MVFR CIGS, AND REDUCED VSBYS. BELIEVE THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF THE CONVECTION, BEFORE LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WEAK FRONT. SOME VSBY
REDUCTIONS IN -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS S ACROSS E TX AND EXTREME NW LA. THESE LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT BY
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THUS, LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THAT
TIME. S WINDS 8-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z (EXCEPT HIGHER AND
GUSTY IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION). /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BY NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 69 79 61 / 60 80 70 70
MLU 87 69 82 61 / 70 70 80 70
DEQ 80 57 74 54 / 90 60 30 20
TXK 85 64 75 59 / 90 80 50 40
ELD 84 64 76 55 / 80 70 50 50
TYR 89 66 75 62 / 60 80 60 50
GGG 89 67 77 61 / 60 80 70 60
LFK 92 71 84 65 / 20 30 70 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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