641
FXUS64 KSHV 281956
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
256 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- ROUND TWO IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TX/OK RED RIVER VALLEY AND OUR
HEATING HAS OPENED UP FOR A MUCH BETTER RESULT AHEAD OF THIS
LATE DAY APPROACH.
- THE COLD FRONT WILL ADD FORCING WITH OUR SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING
TO N BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS I-30 THEN BY MID MORNING FOR I-20.
- A NICE 1022MB AIR MASS WILL SET UP SHOP FOR A STELLAR WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE CIRRUS VEIL HAS PARTED FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS UP WIND, WITH
MORE SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO FAR, WE SEE A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HERE FROM 77 AT DEQUEEN TO 89 AT LUFKIN.
S/SW WINDS ARE GOING TO GUST UP A LITTLE AND THE CAP WILL ELEVATED
AND COOL IN THE PROCESS. OUR DEW POINTS REMAIN LOADED FOR BEAR
WITH LOWER 70S ON AVERAGE. IT'S 68 IN CENTER FOR THE DRIEST AND 75
FOR THE WETTEST. ALTHOUGH IDABEL IS 81 OVER 81 AND MAY BE STUCK.
THE GUSTY SW WINDS ARE FEEDING INTO THIS NEW (ROUND TWO) THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER N TX, WEST OF LAKE TEXOMA. A LINE EXTENDS NE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA. SO PLENTY
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT TO FILL IN AHEAD OF THAT BOUNDARY
IN TORNADO WATCH 171. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NEW WATCH COORDINATED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR EVENING HOURS. THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE LONG LIVED INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE COLD
FRONT FALLING IN BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE ASSIST. SO WE WILL STAND
BY WITH OUR SEAT BELTS FASTENED TONIGHT, AND BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW A 1018MB AIR MASS WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER MO/AR.
CLOUDS FROM NEW STORMS AHEAD OF THE E PACIFIC CUT-OFF LOW'S
APPROACH IN THE PATTERN WILL KEEP US FROM HEATING UP MUCH KEEPING
70S FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AND MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO COME AS OUR NE
WINDS ARE REINFORCED EARLY ON FRIDAY AHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH
OUR NEXT GOOD RAIN COMING. SO LOOK FOR 60S FOR HIGHS AT THAT TIME.
LOWS WILL BE COOLER IN THE 50S, AND LIKELY 40S FOR ONE DAY ON
SUNDAY MORNING THANKS TO THAT SECONDARY AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND.
THE WPC HAS US SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE TODAY UNDER THE TOWERS
AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY FOR THE SOAKER TO KICK OFF THE MAY BUCKET
RAINFALL ENTRIES. NOTHING MORE THAN MARGINAL RISK WISE LATER THIS
WEEK FROM THE SPC 4-8, BUT HAIL COULD BECOME A THREAT WITH THE
COLD CORE LOW OPENING UP INTO A WAVE, BUT TRACKING RIGHT OVER US
FRIDAY NIGHT. BEYOND A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK HAS A THIRD
AIR MASS LOOKING GOOD IN THE 10 DAY OUTLOOK. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOSTLY RETURNED TO THE REGION FOR THE START OF
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, AS AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH
AC CIGS THAT CONTINUE TO SPREAD E. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/NE LA, AND WILL AFFECT MLU
THROUGH 20Z. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAY REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY AFFECT TXK/ELD, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIRE BY/AFTER 00Z OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SLIDE SE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING, AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF
35KTS, MVFR CIGS, AND REDUCED VSBYS. BELIEVE THAT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FOR A FEW HOURS IN WAKE OF THE CONVECTION, BEFORE LOW
MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG THE WEAK FRONT. SOME VSBY
REDUCTIONS IN -DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS S ACROSS E TX AND EXTREME NW LA. THESE LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT BY
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THUS, LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THAT
TIME. S WINDS 8-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z (EXCEPT HIGHER AND
GUSTY IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION). /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FOUR-STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 79 61 71 / 80 70 70 40
MLU 69 82 61 74 / 70 80 70 30
DEQ 57 74 54 69 / 60 30 20 20
TXK 64 75 59 70 / 80 50 40 30
ELD 64 76 55 71 / 70 50 50 20
TYR 66 75 62 70 / 80 60 50 50
GGG 67 77 61 70 / 80 70 60 50
LFK 71 84 65 74 / 30 70 70 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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