843
FXUS64 KSHV 290525
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1225 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF ARKLATEX,
WITH THE HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES ALL
STILL PRESENT.
- A WET CONCLUSION TO THE WEEK IS IN STORE, WITH RAINFALL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREAWIDE, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A QUIET AND
COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW, THEN A WARM-UP INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FURTHER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MODELS STILL SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AT INTERVALS OVERNIGHT, THUS HAVE RETAINED POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, PROVIDING THE FORCING
MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, GIVEN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
AMPLIFY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PERIOD
OF TORRENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
IN THE WAKE OF TOMORROW'S STORMS, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN,
AS PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW HOLDS IN PLACE ALOFT, WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS TO FUEL RAINFALL CHANCES THURSDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND OVER TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK, DRIVING HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
MAY PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION,
A SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WHICH WILL BE WATCHED AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES. THE MOST RECENT TIMING MODELS USHER THIS RAINFALL
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.
PROLONGED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN AN UNUSUALLY COOL FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY AIMING FOR THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 40S SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM UP TO MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS
IN THE 80S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH MOSTLY QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUING UNTIL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RETURNS TO OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AT THE TAIL END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FOR THE 29/06Z TAF PERIOD...
LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS ANY OF OUR AIRSPACE ATTM LEAVES ME VERY
SURPRISED GIVEN THAT A COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE I-
30 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING. LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION ARE THE MAIN REASONS WHY WE ARE PRECIPITATION FREE
ATTM WITH THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION BEING HOW LONG WILL THIS
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. A MAJORITY OF HIGHRES AND CAM OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW
BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BEGINNING ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE, BOTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED PRECIPITATION MENTION, INITIALLY AS SHOWERS
BY MID MORNING, FOLLOWED BY VCTS AND PREVAILING TSRA BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE AID OF SOME DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT MOVING OVHD. SOMETHING ELSE PROGS ARE INSISTENT ON
IS POST FRONTAL IFR CEILINGS AND HAVE THUS FOLLOWED SUIT ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AIRSPACE POST FRONTAL CEILING WISE THROUGH THIS 24 HOUR TAF
FORECAST. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT HOWEVER NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR CEILING WISE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
AND HAVE THUS TRENDED THIS WAY AT THE TXK AND ELD TERMINALS. PRE-
FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SE TO SW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY NEAR OR UNDER 10KTS WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS BEING FROM THE
N TO NE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY NEAR OR UNDER 10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 61 71 55 / 70 70 40 70
MLU 82 61 74 55 / 80 70 30 60
DEQ 74 54 69 49 / 30 20 20 50
TXK 75 59 70 54 / 50 40 30 60
ELD 76 55 71 50 / 50 50 20 60
TYR 75 62 70 55 / 60 50 50 70
GGG 77 61 70 55 / 70 60 50 70
LFK 84 65 74 58 / 70 70 50 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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