874
FXUS64 KSHV 291723
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TURNING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
- CONTINUED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD RAISE SOME
POTENTIAL FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A QUIET AND
COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW, THEN A WARM-UP INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
AT THE TIME OF WRITING, CONVECTION IS INITIATING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM DEEP EAST TX TO NORTH CENTRAL LA. WHILE
FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK, THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SEVERE HAZARDS SHOULD ANY STORMS GET STARTED. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTING 2000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PRESENT IN THIS AREA. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE HAZARDS, MAINLY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT THAT IS MAINLY FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, WHERE SFC CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LEAVE NONSEVERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT CAM OUTPUT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS OVERPERFORMED
AND THAT IS BEING TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT HERE. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WARRANTS SOME CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CONTINUE
TO INITIATE.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S. SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK
TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NONSEVERE AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN TO
THE ARK-LA-TX. DESPITE BEING UNDER DROUGHT RECENTLY, WPC IS
HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF THE AREA AS BEING AT RISK OF FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
50S AND 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS ON SATURDAY AND ALLOWS
ANOTHER WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S BY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND NOW AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK AND ELD TERMINALS.
NOT SEEING THE IFR CEILINGS AS OF YET LIKE MODEL TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SUGGESTS BUT THINK THIS WILL BE JUST A MATTER OF TIME ONCE
WE GET SOME POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, MVFR
CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THOSE MAY
CREEP UP TO LOW VFR HEIGHTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS
FALL BACK TO MVFR AND/OR IFR HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.
LIKEWISE, STILL EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS
WE GO THROUGH THE DAY WITH THAT ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND PERHAPS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 61 68 55 / 80 70 60 70
MLU 79 60 72 55 / 80 80 40 60
DEQ 73 53 68 49 / 30 30 30 50
TXK 74 58 69 53 / 50 50 40 60
ELD 74 55 69 51 / 60 60 30 60
TYR 73 62 67 55 / 70 60 70 70
GGG 74 61 68 54 / 80 70 60 70
LFK 83 65 72 58 / 80 70 60 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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