815
FXUS64 KSHV 291824
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, TURNING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
- CONTINUED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS COULD RAISE SOME
POTENTIAL FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING CONCERNS.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A QUIET AND
COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW, THEN A WARM-UP INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
AT THE TIME OF WRITING, CONVECTION IS INITIATING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM DEEP EAST TX TO NORTH CENTRAL LA. WHILE
FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK, THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SEVERE HAZARDS SHOULD ANY STORMS GET STARTED. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTING 2000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE IS PRESENT IN THIS AREA. PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE HAZARDS, MAINLY LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT THAT IS MAINLY FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, WHERE SFC CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LEAVE NONSEVERE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT CAM OUTPUT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS OVERPERFORMED
AND THAT IS BEING TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT HERE. HOWEVER, THE
ENVIRONMENT WARRANTS SOME CAUTION, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CONTINUE
TO INITIATE.
BY TOMORROW MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S. SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK
TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE NONSEVERE AND BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN TO
THE ARK-LA-TX. DESPITE BEING UNDER DROUGHT RECENTLY, WPC IS
HIGHLIGHTING MUCH OF THE AREA AS BEING AT RISK OF FLASH AND URBAN
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE
50S AND 60S ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS ON SATURDAY AND ALLOWS
ANOTHER WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THIS WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S BY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, FROPA NOW FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KLFK
WITH STILL A LIGHT SE WIND. NORTHERLY WINDS VARY FROM NW TO NE AT
5-15KT. MVFR CIGS MAY AT TIMES TOUCH IFR WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT WITH A LARGE
HAIL THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATTERN WILL CONTINUE W TO E
WITH A LARGE FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE RUNNING OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE VFR.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 68 54 58 / 70 50 70 80
MLU 59 71 55 59 / 80 40 60 80
DEQ 53 68 50 62 / 20 20 30 50
TXK 58 69 54 60 / 50 30 40 60
ELD 55 69 51 60 / 60 30 50 70
TYR 61 67 54 57 / 70 60 80 90
GGG 60 67 53 58 / 70 60 80 90
LFK 64 71 57 59 / 70 60 80 100
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...24
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