423
FXUS64 KSHV 300510
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1210 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- SHOWERS WILL RETURN AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, AND
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING HAZARDS.
- THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUIET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SCATTERED STORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
AS A PSEUDO-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE ARKLATEX
AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO GAIN DEFINITION AS THIS
COMPLEX GRADUALLY DRIFTS SOUTH, AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY PRODUCING
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, BUT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, AFTER
THE LAST OF THIS EVENING'S ACTION DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AS MIDNIGHT
APPROACHES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR THE
ACTIVE PATTERN THUSFAR THIS WEEK WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR BEFORE IT SETS
UP SHOP ALONG THE GULF COAST, PARKING ITSELF ALONG THE SHORE AND
PROVIDING ENOUGH OF A FORCING MECHANISM TO FACILITATE CONTINUED
RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THUS, OUR POPS WILL BARELY
HAVE DIMINISHED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MORNING BEFORE THEY REBUILD TO
THE NORTH INTO THE DAY TODAY. WITH VERY ISOLATED AND BRIEF
EXCEPTIONS, RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT,
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ONLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
HOURS OF SATURDAY, AS A COOL FRONT AND A LARGE AREA OF BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND FINALLY KICKS THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO MOTION. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF BETWEEN HALF
AN INCH AND 2-3 INCHES, AND OUTLOOKS FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL
AREA IN PLACE FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODS OF PROLONGED RAINFALL AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THE PASSAGE
OF THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN AN UNUSUALLY COOL FIRST
WEEKEND OF MAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY AIMING FOR THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 40S SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM UP TO MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 80S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK,
WITH MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING UNTIL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH IMPACTS BECOMING POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE TAIL END OF
THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
WHILE THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF OUR AIRSPACE AS OF THIS
EVENING, PLENTIFUL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT
HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE. IFR CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT
-TSRA WERE NOTED ALONG OUR I-20 CORRIDOR AIRSPACE AND POINTS SOUTH
AND WE ARE ALSO GETTING INTERMITTENT SHRA/-TSRA WHERE WE HAVE
CEILINGS NEAR 45HDFT AT THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS AS WELL. PROGS SUGGEST
THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF THRU MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH COVERAGE BEGINNING TO WANE THE CLOSER WE GET THE SUNRISE.
BELIEVE THAT DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING BEFORE WE SEE INCREASE SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THU. WE MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS AFTER
SUNRISE TODAY BUT IF WE DO, IT WON'T BE BY MUCH. SHOULD SEE A
REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD
OR AFTER 01/00Z THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR NNE TO ENE WINDS OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THOSE SPEEDS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THU AS WELL.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 55 60 50 / 40 60 80 60
MLU 72 55 62 51 / 30 60 80 80
DEQ 69 50 66 45 / 30 30 30 30
TXK 70 54 65 50 / 30 40 50 40
ELD 69 51 63 47 / 30 40 60 60
TYR 68 55 59 50 / 60 70 80 50
GGG 68 54 60 49 / 50 60 80 60
LFK 72 57 61 50 / 60 80 100 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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