415
FXUS64 KSHV 302329
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
- SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, AND
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING HAZARDS.
- THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE QUIET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE,
FOLLOWED BY A WARM-UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SCATTERED STORMS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION
RECENTLY HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AND HAS STALLED ALONG THE GULF
COAST. EVEN WITH THIS FRONT CLEAR OF THE ARK-LA-TX, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM AND BRING MORE SHOWERS TO
THE AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE PERSISTANT THANKS TO THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. WPC QPF STILL HAS ESTIMATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEING POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS SETTLED. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN WITH FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
THE HOPE IS THAT ALL THE RAIN WILL HELP THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, BUT THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD CREATE SHORT-TERM
FLOODING PROBLEMS. LUCKILY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY WORKED OVER
FROM DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER, SO FURTHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
ISN'T EXPECTED.
THE RAIN WILL WORK TO COOL US DOWN EVEN FURTHER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MANY PLACES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60. THE RAIN
SHOULD END IN THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING WHEN AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CAN PUSH THE STALLED FRONT EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE
REGION. WITHOUT THE FRONT, THERE ISN'T MUCH TO SPEAK OF FOR
LIFTING MECHANISMS, GIVING US A BREAK FROM THE RAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ONCE THE RAIN STOPS ON SATURDAY AND
ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THERE
ARE PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT, BUT ADDITIONAL
SEVERE AND HYDRO CONCERNS COULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MODEL
SOLUTIONS AREN'T TOO CONCERNING YET BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
FOR THE 01/00Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS ARE SET TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO ONGOING NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AT 5-10
KTS AND VCSH/-SHRA OVERRUNNING POST-FRONTAL AIR ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. SOME IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 59 51 71 / 60 90 70 0
MLU 56 61 51 72 / 50 90 90 0
DEQ 51 66 46 72 / 10 40 20 0
TXK 55 63 50 73 / 30 60 40 0
ELD 52 62 47 71 / 40 70 60 0
TYR 55 58 50 71 / 70 90 60 0
GGG 55 58 49 71 / 60 90 60 0
LFK 56 60 50 72 / 70 100 80 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...16
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