300
FXUS64 KSHV 011604
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- TODAY'S SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LEADING TO
ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF POSSIBLE RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR MANY.
- RAIN WILL END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND STAY DRY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- RECENT RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING HIGHER THAN
THE 70S THIS WEEKEND UNTIL A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EAST TX AND NORTHERN LA ARE
LIKELY TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME,
WHILE FAR NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST AR SEE LESS THAN ANOTHER HALF
INCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA IS INCLUDED IN A ERO FOR FLASH
FLOODING, THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND THE STEADY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
TODAY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE GROUND RELATIVELY EASILY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WHERE PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN RATES COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE
ARE ALSO SEVERAL RIVERS IN DEEP EAST TEXAS THAT ARE UNDER FLOOD
WARNINGS, SO PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS NEAR THESE RIVERS SHOULD
MONITOR FOR AREAL FLOODING.
THE RAIN SHOULD WRAP UP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ONCE THE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST IS PUSHED EASTWARD. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR A FEW DAYS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT WEST
WEAKENS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES
RELATIVELY CLEAR AND HELP WARM US BACK UP AFTER THE RAIN COOLED US
DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MAKE THEIR WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM A CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS
HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S RUN, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW ATTEMPTS TO RECOMBINE WITH
THE DOMINANT FLOW. THIS COULD PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES. THERE ISN'T A SEVERE RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT, BUT SPRING CONDITIONS
COULD ALWAYS INTRODUCE THAT RISK LATER ON.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FOR THE 01/12Z TAF PERIOD, EXPECT DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CIGS/VSBY CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE ONSET OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 TERMINALS. FARTHER NORTH AT KTXK AND KELD, RAIN
WILL BE MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE WITH TEMPO CONDITIONS TO ACCOUNT
FOR INTERMITTENT OCCURRENCE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THESE TWO TERMINALS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, CIGS WILL STILL DROP AT THESE NORTHERN
SITES AS WELL, JUST NOT QUITE AS LOW WITH MAINLY LOW VFR TO SOME
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS DURING THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT N/NE
WINDS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS HEAVIER RAIN BEGINS TO IMPACT MOST TERMINALS.
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
WITH CLOUDS LINGERING A BIT LONGER BEFORE CLEARING LATER SATURDAY.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 60 50 73 49 / 90 80 0 0
MLU 63 50 73 48 / 90 90 0 0
DEQ 67 45 73 45 / 30 20 0 0
TXK 65 50 74 49 / 50 40 0 0
ELD 64 47 73 45 / 60 60 0 0
TYR 60 50 72 51 / 90 60 0 0
GGG 60 49 73 49 / 90 70 0 0
LFK 61 50 73 49 / 100 80 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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