135
FXUS64 KSHV 012336 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL STAY
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A BELOW NORMAL AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING HIGHER THAN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 THIS WEEKEND UNTIL A WARMING TREND BEGINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EAST TX AND NORTHERN LA ARE
LIKELY TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS TIME,
WHILE FAR NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST AR SEE LESS THAN ANOTHER HALF
INCH. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA IS INCLUDED IN A ERO FOR FLASH
FLOODING, THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND THE STEADY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
TODAY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE GROUND RELATIVELY EASILY. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WHERE PERIODS
OF HEAVIER RAIN RATES COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE
ARE ALSO SEVERAL RIVERS IN DEEP EAST TEXAS THAT ARE UNDER FLOOD
WARNINGS, SO PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS NEAR THESE RIVERS SHOULD
MONITOR FOR AREAL FLOODING.
THE RAIN SHOULD WRAP UP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ONCE THE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE GULF COAST IS PUSHED EASTWARD. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR A FEW DAYS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT WEST
WEAKENS. THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SKIES
RELATIVELY CLEAR AND HELP WARM US BACK UP AFTER THE RAIN COOLED US
DOWN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR 80 BY SUNDAY AND
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS MAKE THEIR WAY DOWNSTREAM FROM A CUTOFF LOW. THE GFS
HAS SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S RUN, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW ATTEMPTS TO RECOMBINE WITH
THE DOMINANT FLOW. THIS COULD PUSH RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES. THERE ISN'T A SEVERE RISK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT, BUT SPRING CONDITIONS
COULD ALWAYS INTRODUCE THAT RISK LATER ON.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION AS NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY PUSH IN DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC AIR. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO MODERATE
RAINS AND LOW CEILINGS ARE NOW CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF I-20 AND THIS
TREND SOUTHWARD OF RAIN AND BAD FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT SAID, SOME POCKETS OF
LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH
DAYBREAK TOMORROW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT POTENTIAL OF
NEGATIVE IMPACT AT ANY I-20 TAF SITE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN EITHER THE SHV, TYR, GGG, OR MLU TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL
BE CLEARING OUT TOMORROW MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
NORTH SURFACE WINDS AT 7 TO 12 MPH ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 74 51 79 / 80 0 0 0
MLU 51 74 48 78 / 90 0 0 0
DEQ 45 73 45 78 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 50 75 50 80 / 30 0 0 0
ELD 47 73 45 78 / 50 0 0 0
TYR 49 74 52 78 / 70 0 0 0
GGG 49 74 49 78 / 70 0 0 0
LFK 50 73 49 79 / 90 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...50
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