071
FXUS64 KSHV 021621
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- A QUIET AND DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S, AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- THE WORK WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY A
WEEK. A RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, KEEPING THE ARK-
LA-TX IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE AND
SHRINK IN AMPLITUDE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CHANGE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO BE
QUASI- ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL WORK TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY WORKED TO FLATTEN
THE FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL MOVE INLAND AND CREATE PERTURBATIONS
IN THE FLOW. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE LARGER TROUGH WOULD THEN SWEEP
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BEFORE MOVING
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALREADY A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE
EXACT LOCATION AND HAZARDS ARE YET TO BE SEEN, BUT THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A DECENT
LIFTING MECHANISM. NEITHER OF THESE CAN BE DISCOUNTED IN THE ARK-
LA-TX IN THE SPRING SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED.
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM SHOULD USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR AS IT LEAVES ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY BACK INTO THE 70S
BEFORE WARMING AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
FOR THE 02/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH DECREASING
MID-LEVEL ALTOCU AROUND 10-12KFT STILL ENCOMPASSING PARTS OF OUR
AIRSPACE. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME SPARSE CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY,
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT SAID, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
VERY PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS NEAR KLFK FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE A STRONGER SURGE OF DRY AIR ARRIVES WITH
INCREASING N/NW WINDS AVERAGING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING, LOOK FOR WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE
TO NEAR CALM WITH MOSTLY SKC OVERNIGHT.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 51 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 75 50 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 74 45 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 75 50 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 74 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 74 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 74 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 74 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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