118
FXUS64 KSHV 030005
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- A QUIET AND DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S, AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- THE WORK WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY A
WEEK. A RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, KEEPING THE ARK-
LA-TX IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL LARGELY STAY IN PLACE AND
SHRINK IN AMPLITUDE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CHANGE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO BE
QUASI- ZONAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY. THE CLEAR SKIES
AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL WORK TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT PREVIOUSLY WORKED TO FLATTEN
THE FLOW OVER THE CONUS WILL MOVE INLAND AND CREATE PERTURBATIONS
IN THE FLOW. MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING
FOR RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE LARGER TROUGH WOULD THEN SWEEP
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN BEFORE MOVING
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALREADY A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE
EXACT LOCATION AND HAZARDS ARE YET TO BE SEEN, BUT THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A DECENT
LIFTING MECHANISM. NEITHER OF THESE CAN BE DISCOUNTED IN THE ARK-
LA-TX IN THE SPRING SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED.
WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM SHOULD USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR AS IT LEAVES ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES TEMPORARILY BACK INTO THE 70S
BEFORE WARMING AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
FOR THE 03/00Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TOMORROW, WITH FEW TO SCT CU. WINDS WILL
BECOME WSW BETWEEN 5-10 MPH AFTER 15Z AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 80 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 50 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 45 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 51 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 51 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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