375
FXUS64 KSHV 040603
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
103 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- A QUIET AND WARM START TO THE WEEK IS IN STORE, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
LATE TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT AND SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF I-20 ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL SEE SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMERGE WITHIN THE PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW REMAINING FROM THE
WEEKEND RIDGE. FOR THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY, QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS HIGHS TAKE AIM
AT THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWILL SWING A
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY AS SOON AS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST
ZONES, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CHANCE EXISTS FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS APPROXIMATELY
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE ARKLATEX, THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE
CATALYST FOR THIS SEVERE SETUP REMAINS UNCLEAR. THE DRIVING FACTOR
WILL BE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA, WHICH
IS PROJECTED TO SWING EASTWARD DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER, RECENT LONG
RANGE MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING DOWN THIS EASTERN PROGRESSION,
THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTING THE LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A TROUGH THAT
EFFECTIVELY DETACHES AND AMPLIFIES WHILE THE LOW REFORMS ITSELF OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE ABSORBED INTO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WHILE THE LOW MEANDERS ACROSS TEXAS BY LATE THIS WEEK OR EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT OF THIS SOLUTION IS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WHICH BEGINS WITH TUESDAY'S STORMS AND CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK AHEAD, AND WILL BEAR MONITORING AS SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BECOME
AVAILABLE.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES SERVING AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD WILL PUT A DENT IN OUR WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BEING CUT DOWN TO THE 70S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AND AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL RETURN TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT,
LIKEWISE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO THE 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AS HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE
OVERNIGHT. WITH RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT MORE FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AFTER 05/00Z. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LIGHT S/SW WINDS THROUGH 04/15Z BEFORE INCREASING BETWEEN
BETWEEN 12-18 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 81 66 85 71 / 0 0 10 20
MLU 82 63 86 70 / 0 10 10 20
DEQ 79 63 83 59 / 0 10 20 50
TXK 82 67 85 66 / 0 10 20 50
ELD 80 62 84 64 / 0 10 10 40
TYR 80 68 85 70 / 0 0 10 30
GGG 80 66 85 70 / 0 0 10 20
LFK 82 66 85 72 / 0 0 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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