552
FXUS64 KSHV 060604
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SCHEDULED SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY. REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR. REMEMBER, TURN AROUND,
DON'T DROWN!
- PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. SUMMERTIME HEAT SAFETY
PLANS SHOULD BE REVIEWED AND READIED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA TO MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A SLUG OF INCREASED MOISTURE, DRIVING DEWPOINT
VALUES INTO THE MID 70S, TO SURGE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE UPPER-FLOW TRANSLATING
EAST ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS COULD GENERATE CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE GULF SOURCED BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ACROSS MAINLY NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MAINTAINING AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION AGAIN EXPECTED.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF
TO BUILD WEST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING
FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID 90S FROM
MID TO LATE WEEK. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
FOR THE 06/06Z TAFS, A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS TOWARDS KTYR BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING THERE. OTHERWISE, IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREAWIDE EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A
VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT BACK IN THE VFR RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS BY
06/19Z. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING SHORTLY
AFTER 06/15Z. A RATHER LARGE ZONE OF PRECIP IS LIKELY, BUT THE
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAKES THE IMPACTS AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITES UNCERTAIN. THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY END
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 07/00Z, EVENTUALLY EXITING THE
AREA JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS.
/NUTTALL/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 88 76 91 / 50 60 10 20
MLU 74 87 75 90 / 20 80 20 20
DEQ 70 82 72 89 / 80 80 60 20
TXK 72 86 74 92 / 50 80 20 10
ELD 72 85 74 89 / 30 80 20 20
TYR 73 87 75 92 / 30 50 0 10
GGG 72 89 75 91 / 40 70 10 10
LFK 73 89 75 91 / 30 50 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...09
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