205
FXUS64 KSHV 070431
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SCHEDULED SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
- PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT ACROSS SOME AREAS. REMEMBER, TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
- PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. SUMMERTIME HEAT SAFETY PLANS SHOULD BE
REVIEWED AND READIED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AN UPPER-LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS BEEN THE
MAIN DRIVER FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER, LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO AN
OVERALL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RICH IN GULF MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING. COULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-30 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER-LOW, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE GULF OF AMERICA IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
AND REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE THE WORKWEEK.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105
DEGREES MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN NEARLY AREAWIDE EACH DAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN
THE WORK-WEEK PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE PREVAILING
UPPER-RIDGE ON FRIDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS EVENING DESPITE POCKETS OF
CONVECTION. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT WHERE THEN CEILINGS WILL DROP TO LOWER-END MVFR AND IFR.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL AROUND MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY WHERE
THEY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND EVENTUALLY REACH VFR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH
LATE EVENING, HOWEVER, A SQUALL LINE MAY APPROACH WESTERN
TERMINALS (MAINLY TYR) AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST TOWARDS GGG, TXK, AND SHV. THEREAFTER,
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z AREA-WIDE
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC AROUND THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AS TRENDS HOPEFULLY BECOME MORE CLEAR INTO
SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SE WINDS TONIGHT WILL DECREASE TO
5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING S/SW EARLY SUNDAY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 18-20KTS.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY BE
NEEDED ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 87 76 92 / 50 40 10 10
MLU 74 89 76 92 / 30 50 20 30
DEQ 70 85 72 90 / 70 80 40 10
TXK 73 89 75 94 / 60 70 30 10
ELD 72 86 74 91 / 50 70 20 20
TYR 73 88 75 93 / 30 40 10 10
GGG 73 88 75 93 / 40 50 10 10
LFK 73 88 75 92 / 30 40 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page