422
FXUS64 KSHV 110021
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES
THROUGH THE COMING AFTERNOONS. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PUTTING A DENT AFTERNOON HEAT
AND POTENTIALLY PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS MORNING, TO AN EXTENT WHICH SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE. THUS EXPANDED POP COVERAGE
NORTH TO I-20 AND EASTWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR EFFECTS
OF ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING. NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WITH THESE SHOWERS. THIS EVENING WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR OR JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE VICINITY OF TOLEDO BEND AND ADJACENT SITES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES.
WHILE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL, DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW, AS
HIGHS AGAIN TAKE AIM AT THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S
WILL AGAIN CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO TAKE AIM AT THE CENTURY MARK,
WITH SITES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING "FEELS LIKE" VALUES OF 100
DEGREES FOR A COUPLE HOURS, BUT VALUES ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
NOR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MERIT A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. A
COUPLE ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS RIDGE-DOMINATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE
IN THE WEEK, AS THE RIDGE CONTRACTS AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY
TO RETURN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ARKLATEX OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AND REMAINING LARGELY NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SURROUNDING THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL CHANCES LOOK TO LINGER SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
ZONES, PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO
BREAK DOWN COMPLETELY, OPENING THE DOOR TO WEAK DISTURBANCES
DRIFTING THROUGH PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SUCH A FORCING
MECHANISM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL JOIN WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO YIELD SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS SUNDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH TO THE TAIL END OF THIS
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND MAKING FOR A SOGGY START TO NEXT
WEEK. WHILE THE RIDGE HOLDS TOGETHER, AND RAINFALL COVERAGE
REMAINS SCATTERED, AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD RAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURN HIGHS TO THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE
MORNING LOWS TREND FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BACK INTO THE
LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS VFR WITH CU FADING FAST. S/SW 5-10KT
OVERNIGHT AND 10-15G24KT BY 15Z THRU AFTN. MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z
FOR KLFK AND I-20 TERMINALS 09-13Z, BCMG SCT VFR BY 15-17Z. MORE
ISOLD SHRA THURSDAY, BUT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FROPA DROPS OVER AR. (BRIEF E/NE WIND AT KELD/KTXK THAT EVE)
"TOUCH AND GO" FROPA WITH MORE GUSTY S/SW FLOW FOR THE DRY WEEKEND.
BETTER FROPA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING SCT/NUM TS MONDAY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT WITH A SHIFT IN THE WIND TO N FOR TUESDAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 78 94 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 77 96 79 95 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 78 93 76 89 / 0 0 60 60
TXK 78 94 79 93 / 0 0 30 50
ELD 77 94 78 91 / 0 0 20 40
TYR 77 95 78 95 / 0 0 10 10
GGG 77 95 78 95 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 75 94 76 95 / 0 10 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...24
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