126
FXUS64 KSHV 111754
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1254 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 DEGREES
THROUGH THE COMING AFTERNOONS. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TOMORROW. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DEVELOPING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION, THIS AFTERNOON'S
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO MAX OUT LARGELY IN THE 99 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE.
THAT SAID, WITH LIMITED MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS, REINFORCED BY GULF
MOISTURE ON ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS, A FEW SITES REACHING HEAT INDICES
OF 105 DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY IN DEEP EAST
TEXAS. THESE MAXIMA SHOULD LAST ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, THUS NOT
MEETING DURATION OR COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY. ALL
THE SAME, SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THEIR CARETAKERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE, AND HAVE
ADEQUATE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AVAILABLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS EVENING WILL ARRIVE IN THE
NORTHERN ARKLATEX AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS I-
20 AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT IF
THIS LINE RETAINS ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, SEVERAL STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY, TRAINING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT
IN A SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING BY EVENING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY CLIP OUR
NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES, BUT OTHERWISE, SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
QUIET, DRY AND HOT.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THIS WEEK AND BROUGHT THIS
STUBBORN HEAT TO THE ARKLATEX WILL START TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AS
THIS WEEK CONCLUDES. WHILE NOT COLLAPSING ENTIRELY, THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO CONTRACT AND LOSE DEFINITION ENOUGH TO
OPEN THE DOOR TO DISTURBANCES SUCH AS TONIGHT'S COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO SEE A RETROGRADING AS THE HIGH FALLS APART AND
REORGANIZES ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO,
SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL START TO FUNNEL
FORCING MECHANISMS INTO OUR MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SUCH ROUND OF RAINFALL IS POISED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING
SOLIDLY THROUGH MONDAY. RECENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING
BACK AND FORTH ON WHEN WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH, WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH, BEARING IN MIND THE LATITUDE FOR THIS TO CHANGE AGAIN. IN THE
MEANWHILE A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE AREAWIDE
SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
RIDGE HOLDS TOGETHER, AND RAINFALL COVERAGE REMAINS SCATTERED,
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE MORNING LOWS TREND
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SITES ARE RETURNING TO VFR WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CALM BACK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COVER MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTHEAST THESE CIGS WILL
SPREAD, SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE MADE IN THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD BE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COULD BRING VCTS TO KTXK AS EARLY AS 13/07Z. BRIEFLY
WORSENING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT MAKE IT
OVER ANY SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 94 77 95 / 10 10 10 0
MLU 77 94 76 95 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 76 88 74 92 / 50 60 10 10
TXK 78 93 77 97 / 30 40 10 0
ELD 77 91 75 93 / 10 20 10 10
TYR 77 94 77 95 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 77 95 76 95 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 76 95 75 95 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...57
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