283
FXUS64 KSHV 120017
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
717 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED 105 DEGREES
THROUGH THE COMING AFTERNOONS. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TOMORROW. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DEVELOPING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX. AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION, THIS AFTERNOON'S
HEAT INDICES LOOK TO MAX OUT LARGELY IN THE 99 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE.
THAT SAID, WITH LIMITED MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS, REINFORCED BY GULF
MOISTURE ON ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS, A FEW SITES REACHING HEAT INDICES
OF 105 DEGREES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, PARTICULARLY IN DEEP EAST
TEXAS. THESE MAXIMA SHOULD LAST ONLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, THUS NOT
MEETING DURATION OR COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY. ALL
THE SAME, SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THEIR CARETAKERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE, AND HAVE
ADEQUATE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AVAILABLE.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS EVENING WILL ARRIVE IN THE
NORTHERN ARKLATEX AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS I-
20 AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT IF
THIS LINE RETAINS ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, SEVERAL STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY, TRAINING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT
IN A SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING BY EVENING. THE ECMWF HINTS AT WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY CLIP OUR
NORTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES, BUT OTHERWISE, SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
QUIET, DRY AND HOT.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH HAS DOMINATED THIS WEEK AND BROUGHT THIS
STUBBORN HEAT TO THE ARKLATEX WILL START TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AS
THIS WEEK CONCLUDES. WHILE NOT COLLAPSING ENTIRELY, THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO CONTRACT AND LOSE DEFINITION ENOUGH TO
OPEN THE DOOR TO DISTURBANCES SUCH AS TONIGHT'S COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO SEE A RETROGRADING AS THE HIGH FALLS APART AND
REORGANIZES ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO,
SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL START TO FUNNEL
FORCING MECHANISMS INTO OUR MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SUCH ROUND OF RAINFALL IS POISED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING
SOLIDLY THROUGH MONDAY. RECENT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING
BACK AND FORTH ON WHEN WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE
EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH, WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH, BEARING IN MIND THE LATITUDE FOR THIS TO CHANGE AGAIN. IN THE
MEANWHILE A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE AREAWIDE
SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
RIDGE HOLDS TOGETHER, AND RAINFALL COVERAGE REMAINS SCATTERED,
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
RETURN HIGHS TO THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE MORNING LOWS TREND
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND UPPER 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR THIS EVENING WILL SEE MORE MVFR
08-12Z AND AND THROUGH 15Z, PERHAPS EVEN TEMPO IFR AT KLFK AROUND
DAYBREAK. EXPECT S/SW WINDS FOR THE DAY AT 5-15KT AND A CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION EARLY AS A WEAK FROPA SETTLES OVER OK/AR.
THEN, WE'LL RESORT BACK TO BRISK S/SW WINDS FOR A MOSTLY HOT AND
DRY WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY
WILL BRING N/NE WIND BY SUNUP TUESDAY, BUT CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WET MONDAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 94 78 95 / 10 10 10 0
MLU 79 96 78 96 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 75 88 74 91 / 50 60 10 10
TXK 78 92 77 95 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 78 91 76 93 / 10 20 10 10
TYR 78 94 77 95 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 78 94 77 95 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 75 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...24
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