690
FXUS64 KSHV 121809
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
109 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
THE CENTURY MARK TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
I-20. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND
LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES AND LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
VALUES AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE I-
20 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING, FOLLOWED BY A BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD WHICH IS LIKEWISE WEAKENING. SCATTERED FURTHER RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN EAST TEXAS, BUT OVERALL TRENDS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
DIMINISHING ENTIRELY BY EARLY EVENING. CARRYING POPS TO REPRESENT
COVERAGE, AFTER WHICH THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, ONCE AGAIN AIMING FOR THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S, BUT GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY NORTH AND EAST, WITH
ECMWF GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTING A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN CENTRAL TO
NORTH ARKANSAS WHICH MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GRAZE OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN SOMEWHAT AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS, WITH THE PRESSURE CENTER
DRIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOSING DEFINITION ENOUGH TO OPEN THE DOOR
TO IMPACTS FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGIN TO DOMINATE, WHICH TOGETHER
WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHAPE UPPER
LEVEL STEERING INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK WHICH WILL START TO FUNNEL FORCING MECHANISMS INTO OUR
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL START TO PUT A DENT IN
OUR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S, WITH AREAWIDE 80S AND EVEN A FEW
70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
BASED ON TIMING GUIDANCE, THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ADVANCING INTO THE ARKLATEX
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SPREADING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING SOLIDLY THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE
AREAWIDE SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES,
WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES POSING A POTENTIAL HAZARD.
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A PSEUDO-ZONAL PATTERN CAUSING OUR HEAVY
RAINMAKER TO STAGNATE. RECENT RUNS ARE EVOLVING A DEEPER SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW, SWEEPING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY, RETAINING SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH A POTENTIAL REINFORCING SHOT OF
MOISTURE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE NEXT WEEK.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CIGS HAVE LARGELY RETURNED TO VFR, EVEN WITH SEVERAL SITES
PREVAILING VCTS. THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS IS RIDING A LINE
BETWEEN RAIN VS THUNDER, BUT THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. STILL EXPECTING SOME VARIABLE
WINDS THIS EVENING THAT WILL STABILIZE AND CALM SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. RETURNING CIGS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD INCLUDE KLFK BUT
KTYR AND KGGG ARE BORDERLINE AS WELL, WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR
THE NEXT PACKAGE. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH THE DAY
LIKE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HEAVY RAINS
RETURN TO THE REGION. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 95 78 92 / 10 0 0 60
MLU 76 96 78 94 / 0 0 0 50
DEQ 75 92 75 86 / 20 10 50 70
TXK 77 96 78 90 / 10 0 20 70
ELD 75 94 77 90 / 20 0 10 60
TYR 77 95 78 93 / 10 0 0 60
GGG 76 95 78 92 / 10 0 0 60
LFK 75 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...57
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