428
FXUS64 KSHV 122348 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
648 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
THE CENTURY MARK TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
I-20. SENSITIVE GROUPS SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AND
LIMIT OUTDOOR EXPOSURE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL RETURN EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES AND LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB TO POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
VALUES AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE REACHING THE I-
20 CORRIDOR AS OF THIS WRITING, FOLLOWED BY A BROAD STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD WHICH IS LIKEWISE WEAKENING. SCATTERED FURTHER RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN EAST TEXAS, BUT OVERALL TRENDS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
DIMINISHING ENTIRELY BY EARLY EVENING. CARRYING POPS TO REPRESENT
COVERAGE, AFTER WHICH THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN LARGELY DRY
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, ONCE AGAIN AIMING FOR THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S, BUT GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY NORTH AND EAST, WITH
ECMWF GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTING A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN CENTRAL TO
NORTH ARKANSAS WHICH MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO GRAZE OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN SOMEWHAT AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS, WITH THE PRESSURE CENTER
DRIFTING OFFSHORE AND LOSING DEFINITION ENOUGH TO OPEN THE DOOR
TO IMPACTS FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO SEE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGIN TO DOMINATE, WHICH TOGETHER
WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SHAPE UPPER
LEVEL STEERING INTO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HEADING INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK WHICH WILL START TO FUNNEL FORCING MECHANISMS INTO OUR
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL START TO PUT A DENT IN
OUR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S, WITH AREAWIDE 80S AND EVEN A FEW
70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
BASED ON TIMING GUIDANCE, THE FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ADVANCING INTO THE ARKLATEX
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND SPREADING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY,
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUING SOLIDLY THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE
AREAWIDE SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES,
WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES POSING A POTENTIAL HAZARD.
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A PSEUDO-ZONAL PATTERN CAUSING OUR HEAVY
RAINMAKER TO STAGNATE. RECENT RUNS ARE EVOLVING A DEEPER SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW, SWEEPING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MONDAY GOING INTO TUESDAY, RETAINING SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WITH A POTENTIAL REINFORCING SHOT OF
MOISTURE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LATE NEXT WEEK.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ERRATICALLY AROUND THE FOUR STATE REGION
THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM AROUND THE SHV, LFK, ELD, AND MLU TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT AT ALL SITES, FOR NOW, IS
DEEMED TOO LOW TO REPRESENT THAT POTENTIAL BY MORE THAN VCSH. A
LARGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE TOWARDS ELD AND MLU LATER THIS
EVENING COULD CONCEIVABLY RESULT IN LATER AMENDMENTS AT ELD AND
MLU IF MORE ACTIVITY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED MANIFESTS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT LESS LOW LEVEL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHT AND THUS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LESS PREVALENT AND THE ONLY AREA WHERE IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND MID MORNING LOOKS
LIKELY IS IN DEEP EAST TX (LFK) AND THIS WAS REPRESENTED IN THE
TAF. SOME CU IN THE 2.5 TO 5 KFT RANGE IS ANTICIPATED LATER
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH PASSING LAYERS OF
HIGHER CIRRUS. ONE POTENTIAL WILDCARD WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR
TOMORROW IS AROUND TXK AND ELD WHERE LATE NIGHT CONVECTION IN OK
COULD BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THOSE AREAS TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIAL CAUSE SOME WIND SHIFTS AND
MAYBE KICK UP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OR STORM IMPACT TOMORROW IS CURRENTLY LOOKING
TOO LOW TO REPRESENT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HEAVY RAINS
RETURN TO THE REGION. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 95 78 92 / 10 0 0 60
MLU 78 96 79 94 / 0 0 0 50
DEQ 75 91 75 85 / 20 10 50 80
TXK 77 95 78 90 / 10 0 20 70
ELD 76 94 78 89 / 20 0 10 70
TYR 77 94 78 93 / 10 0 0 70
GGG 77 94 78 92 / 10 0 0 70
LFK 75 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...50
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