974
FXUS64 KSHV 291749
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1249 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL
NOT PRODUCE MUCH ACCUMULATED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
WE HAVE BEEN TALKING FOR DAYS NOW ABOUT HOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WERE GOING TO BE OUR HOTTEST DAYS AND WE WOULD LIKELY NEED SOME
HEAT HEADLINES. WHILE LOOKING OVER THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR
TOMORROW, I ULTIMATELY DECIDED AGAINST IT. THE MAIN JUSTIFICATION
FOR NOT GOING WITH ONE FOR TODAY IS A LIGHT TO MODERATE SAHARAN
DUST PLUME STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. WHILE IT IS NOT THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE PLUME, I THINK THAT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE LIGHT
SOLAR SHIELDING. TYPICALLY THESE PLUMES TRACK WITH VERY DRY AIR
MASSES, AND THIS WILL REDUCE OUR PWAT VALUES ON MONDAY, COMPARED
TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY. SO, CONSIDERING ALL OF
THESE FACTORS I THINK WE ARE GOING TO BE BORDERLINE ONCE AGAIN FOR
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND COULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW,
SO I WILL NOT BE ISSUING ONE FOR TODAY AND WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND GO FROM THERE.
DESPITE THIS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT 103-104 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE STILL DANGEROUS AND CAUTION SHOULD BE USED IF YOU
ARE OUTSIDE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. TAKE BREAKS OFTEN AND
KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. JUST BECAUSE WE DON'T
HAVE A PRODUCT OUT, DOESN'T MEAN THAT IMPACT CAN'T BE FELT FROM
THE HEAT. THE HEAT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
ALTHOUGH I THINK WE WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE WITH NO "SLAM DUNK"
CHANCES FOR HEAT HEADLINES. MOISTURE DOES RETURN TO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN
THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. /33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD, PERSISTING THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE, SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY TO BECOME AROUND 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO UP TO 10 KNOTS AGAIN ON TUESDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 20
DEQ 75 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 75 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 95 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 95 75 95 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...05
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