815
FXUS64 KSHV 301727
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1227 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE LOWER 100S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING MID-WEEK, AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING IS SHOWING THE LARGE RIDGE
HAS CENTERED ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER,
LEAVING OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERAL. WHILE THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THIS WEEK, THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SPEAKING OF THE HEAT, IT WOULDN'T BE ANOTHER
DISCUSSION IF WE DIDN'T TALK ABOUT HOW CLOSE WE WILL GET TO
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT NOT QUITE REACHING A POINT
WHERE WE HAVE TO ACTUALLY ISSUE ONE. GUIDANCE TONIGHT CAME IN
SLIGHTLY LOWER AGAIN WITH DEWPOINTS FOR TUESDAY, AND WE WILL STILL
SEE SOME LOWER AMOUNTS OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION. SO, ONCE
AGAIN, I THINK WE WILL BE CLOSE, AND WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW LOCATIONS
REACH A HEAT INDEX OF 105 TO 106 DEGREES, BUT IT IS STILL NOT LONG
ENOUGH AND I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED ONE. SO I
AM GOING TO HOLD OFF ONCE AGAIN WITH THE CAVEAT THAT IT IS STILL
GOING TO BE HOT, AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF YOU ARE TO BE
OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS
TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TONIGHT'S GUIDANCE
SAYS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY
ACCUMULATING RAINFALL, AND THESE CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOWER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND AGAIN ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON ANY DAY, MORE ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AT BEST. ONE CHANGE TO THE MODELS
TONIGHT THOUGH, MAYBE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW.
/33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 KNOTS TODAY ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. WINDS TO DIMINISH
TO NEAR 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS
MOST SITES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TYR WHICH COULD
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT LFK NEAR DAYBREAK. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 95 77 94 / 0 10 10 10
MLU 77 96 77 95 / 0 30 10 10
DEQ 74 94 75 92 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 77 97 77 95 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 76 95 76 94 / 0 20 10 10
TYR 76 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 77 96 78 95 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 76 96 76 94 / 0 10 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...05
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