017
FXUS64 KSHV 011145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- HEAT PERSISTS WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE DAY TO DAY ON
HEAT HAZARDS HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- UPPER RIDGE OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO
OUR NE WITH AN EMERGING EASTERLY WAVE INFLUENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST, SLIGHTLY INCREASING OUR MID TO LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES.
- THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAILY
CONVECTION BY THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG EARLY SUMMER RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO LARGELY MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO IN TERMS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY,
BUT SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE
CHANGES POINT TO RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTS OF
OUR REGION AS AN EASTERLY WAVE BEGINS TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE ON ITS
SOUTHERN FLANK. THIS IS A COMMON SUMMERTIME PATTERN ALONG THE GULF
COAST, AND IT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE DRIFTS TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS A RESULT, EXPECT A GRADUAL UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH PEAK HEATING.
ON THE TOPIC OF PEAK HEATING, DAILY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EACH DAY ON THROUGH
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. ANY HEAT RELIEF WILL HAVE TO COME BY
WAY OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WHICH DOES APPEAR MORE PROMISING THIS
WEEKEND. WITH LOTS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THE HOLIDAY,
JUST BE MINDFUL THAT SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OFTEN DO
DEVELOP QUICKLY. THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR OFTEN PRESENT A
THREAT OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS DOWNBURST WINDS. SO KEEP AN EYE
TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE ACTIVITIES INDOORS IF THUNDER
ROARS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO
REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. WHILE OUR RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO
DECREASE ONCE AGAIN, THEY AREN'T EXPECTED TO DIMINISH COMPLETELY
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO OUR SE.
SO EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY JULY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL
AVERAGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH AT LEAST SOME LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR, BUT LATE DAY CONVECTION MAY GUST
THE WINDS AND IMPACT VIS. LITTLE IF ANY MVFR AT KLFK. S/SW WINDS
5-10KT EARLY AND SOME L&V OR SE5KT LATE DAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
MAKE A RUN INLAND INTO THE DELTA REGION AND KMLU/KLFK HAVE VCTS
FROM 20Z-02/02Z. RINSE AND REPEAT AS LIMITED CHANGE WILL OCCUR
DAILY ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON THUNDER GOING FROM SCATTERED TODAY TO
ISOLATED LATE WEEK AND FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO SEE
CONVECTION INCREASE WITH SCT FOR E TX TO NUM TS FOR LA/AR. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DESPITE THE
GRADUAL RETURN OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 77 93 77 / 20 20 20 0
MLU 95 76 94 77 / 20 20 10 0
DEQ 93 75 92 75 / 0 0 20 0
TXK 96 76 94 76 / 10 10 20 0
ELD 94 75 93 75 / 20 20 10 0
TYR 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 96 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 10
LFK 95 76 93 75 / 20 20 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...24
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