509
FXUS64 KSHV 012055
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
355 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
- THE HEAT WILL PERSIST, WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE DAY
TO DAY ON HEAT HAZARDS HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NE OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS, WITH AN EMERGING EASTERLY WAVE INFLUENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
- THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAILY
CONVECTION BY THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HEAT INDICES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED
HIGHER INDICES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE HEAT
HAZARDS DAILY. REGARDLESS, WE URGE EVERYONE TO TAKE THE NECESSARY
HEAT PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. BESIDES THE
HEAT, WE WILL SEE A RETURN IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US
DRY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION INTO THE OHIO & TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS. AN EASTERLY WAVE ON
THE SOUTHERLY PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC EASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT WNW THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS, WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED
BY A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM NATCHITOCHES, LA TO EL DORADO AR.
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 4000-5000 J/KG AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG, ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8
C/KM, DAMAGING WINDS FROM MICROBURSTS/DOWNBURST WILL BE A CONCERN.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, BUT SOME SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE KEEPING ISOLATED
CONVECTION GOING THROUGH 9-10 PM THIS EVENING BEFORE THINGS ARE
CLEAR. WE SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF EASTERLY WAVE ACTION ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING THE EXPECTED
ACTIVITY FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION INTO THE WESTERN
HALF, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS THE DUE TO THE RIDGE EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE CONUS AND ADJACENT LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CAN'T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL MICROBURST/DOWNBURST CONCERNS
WITH STRONGER STORMS.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MORE BROAD DIRTY TYPE RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE, WHICH WILL ALLOW DAILY CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T
EXPECTED, THE ENVIRONMENT COULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES, IT WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MANY PEOPLE LIKELY BEING
OUTDOORS FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY, REMEMBER TO EXERCISE HEAT
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS, REGARDLESS IF THERE ARE ANY HEAT HAZARDS IN
PLACE. ALSO, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST TO BRING A CHANCE FOR VCTS
CONDITIONS ACROSS MLU/ELD/LFK THIS EVENING. CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE BY 02/04Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK
ACROSS LFK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 02/18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 7 KNOTS TODAY
TO BECOME NEARLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHEAST
UP TO 6 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, SPOTTER
REPORTS COULD BE NEEDED WITH THE RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 76 93 76 / 10 20 20 10
MLU 95 76 94 76 / 20 40 10 0
DEQ 94 74 92 74 / 0 0 20 10
TXK 96 76 94 76 / 0 10 20 0
ELD 95 75 93 75 / 10 20 10 0
TYR 96 77 95 77 / 0 0 30 10
GGG 96 77 94 76 / 0 20 30 10
LFK 95 75 92 75 / 20 20 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...05
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