425
FXUS64 KSHV 021753
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1253 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN ON THE MARGINS FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
- UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR TO NE OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS WHILE WEAK EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF COAST, SUPPORTING LOW-END RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY.
- THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
AFTER A RUN OF DRY DAYS TO END THE MONTH OF JUNE, SCATTERED STORMS
BROUGHT SOME WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. EVEN IF YOU MISSED OUT ON YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, MORE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THIS
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM
THE ONGOING EASTERLY WAVE INFLUENCE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE WHAT WE SAW
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SE CWA,
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX TODAY
BUT DO THINK THE OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WE HAD
YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
IN THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS IF NOT BRIEFLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW OF URBAN AREAS IN NORTH LA AND SW AR.
THE FORECAST WILL LARGELY RINSE AND REPEAT ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE
LATER INTO THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN FLUX ON THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BEYOND THE 4TH OF JULY WHEN COMPARING THE EMCWF AND GFS
PROGS WITH THE LATTER LESS BULLISH ON RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW, NBM
POPS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FAVOR ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
BY WEDNESDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND HOTTER ONCE AGAIN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE APPEARS POISED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
AND EXPAND WESTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING
THIS SAME TIMEFRAME SO THE FORECAST IS CERTAINLY FAR FROM SETTLED
FOR THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
UPDATES THROUGH THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, AND BE PREPARED TO
SHIFT ACTIVITIES INDOORS ANYTIME WEATHER THREATENS AS DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH
SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS A CU FIELD DEVELOPS WITH CIGS OF 4000 TO 5000 FT.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND WILL MOVE INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KLFK IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, SPREADING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS I-20 BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING AFTER SUNDOWN, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT BEFORE CIGS DROP TO IFR AR KLFK BY DAYBREAK.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, SPOTTER
REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 94 77 94 / 10 20 0 20
MLU 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 30
DEQ 74 92 74 92 / 10 20 0 30
TXK 76 95 76 94 / 10 20 10 30
ELD 75 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 30
TYR 76 94 78 96 / 10 10 0 10
GGG 76 94 77 95 / 20 20 10 20
LFK 75 94 76 96 / 20 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...26
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