787
FXUS64 KSHV 030618
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
118 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND, HOLDING CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BUT STILL NOT QUITE WARRANTING HEAT HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR NOW.
- UPPER RIDGE AXES TO OUR EAST AND WEST WILL LEAVE OUR REGION IN
AN INDUCED AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING THAT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT OF WEEK
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF THE TWO RIDGE AXES EXERTING GREATER
INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD MEAN A
TREND TOWARD HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
AS EXPECTED, SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION BROUGHT MORE WELCOME
HEAT RELIEF TO PARTS OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS EAST
TX. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STILL PARKED OVER THE OH VALLEY,
EXPECT MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN
BUT WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE OVER
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER EAST
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, INDUCED TROUGHING WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING OUT WEST. THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD PROMOTE GREATER
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND SO TAKE APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS
WITH OUTDOOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS, INCLUDING BOTH HEAT
SAFETY AS WELL AS LIGHTNING AND OTHER HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN APPEARS TO MAINTAIN THE WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS
OUR REGION INTO EARLY NEXT, ALBEIT NOT AS PRONOUNCED SO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
BY LATE WEEK, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS OF THE UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO
EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AND EXPAND BACK CLOSER TO OUR REGION.
IF THAT PANS OUT, EXPECT AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES WITH MID 90S
AND MAYBE EVEN SOME UPPER 90S FOR LATE NEXT WITH DWINDLING RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FARTHER
OUT IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR UPDATES
THROUGHOUT THIS INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. AT A MINIMUM, PREPARE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND HAVE A PLAN
TO ADJUST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON SHORT NOTICE AS WEATHER DICTATES.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
FOR THE 03/00Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL FOR
ALL OUR TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION ON RADAR, SO I HAVE MENTION OF VCTS FOR KTYR, KGGG, AND
KLFK THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. STILL SEEING A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SCT TO FEW CU FIELD AROUND 5K FEET FOR MOST TERMINALS,
EXPECTING THIS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS START TO DIE
OFF. ASIDE FROM THE STORMS MOVING THROUGH, THE ONLY OTHER IMPACT
WE ARE ANTICIPATING WILL BE FOR KLFK WHERE CIGS COULD DROP TO
MVFR/IFR TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING.
/33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, SPOTTER
REPORTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 75 93 77 / 20 10 40 20
MLU 95 75 95 76 / 0 0 30 10
DEQ 91 71 92 73 / 20 10 30 20
TXK 95 74 94 75 / 30 10 40 20
ELD 93 73 92 74 / 10 0 40 10
TYR 94 76 96 78 / 20 10 20 20
GGG 94 75 95 77 / 20 10 20 20
LFK 94 74 95 76 / 20 0 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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