293
FXUS64 KSHV 161747 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS MAINLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AREAWIDE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA TO
RETROGRADE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LOW
ACROSS TEXAS MAY STILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ON FRIDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRYING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 70S.
A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN
AND MERGE WITH THE PREVAILING HIGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, DRIVING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY
TUESDAY. ACCORDINGLY, HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, POSSIBLY BRINGING
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD NOW DEVELOPING BENEATH ELEVATED
AC/CIRRUS CIGS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF ECNTRL TX, AND MAY AFFECT THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THUS HAVE TEMPOED THUNDER MENTION
FOR BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS WITH THE CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE, LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
AFFECTING THE REMAINING TERMINALS PRECLUDES VCTS MENTION ATTM AND
WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. AC AND CIRRUS CIGS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH LOW MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY/SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX, AFFECTING THE
E TX TERMINALS BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY MID-MORNING. A SCATTERED
STRATOCU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP ELSEWHERE BY MID AND LATE MORNING,
WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED, DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING. SSW WINDS 5-7KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT SSE OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
/05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 93 76 95 / 20 10 10 0
MLU 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 10 0
DEQ 71 91 72 92 / 20 20 10 0
TXK 74 94 75 96 / 20 10 10 0
ELD 73 94 74 95 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 75 93 76 94 / 20 10 10 0
GGG 74 93 75 95 / 20 10 10 0
LFK 73 94 74 95 / 20 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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