163
FXUS64 KSHV 171745 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH ONLY A STRAY SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MID-SUMMER JULY HEAT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INTO ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
UPPER-RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY OPENING THE DOOR
FOR A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA AS AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF NUDGES WEST BEHIND THE RETREATING RIDGE. ALL
THIS BEING SAID, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO MAKE TOO MUCH
OF A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE ESTABLISHED RIDGE ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX WILL MERGE WITH A STRONGER RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS,
RESULTING IN DRIVING THE GULF LOW EASTWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE
CAROLINAS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL HAVE THE AFFECT OF
RAISING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 100 DEGREE BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THUS, HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK.
BY THURSDAY, A CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH COULD
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR WITH
HIGHS ELSEWHERE PERSISTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE 17/18Z
TAF PERIOD. A SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BENEATH SOME HIGH AC/CIRRUS CIGS
THAT HAVE SPILLING AROUND THE CENTER OF UPPER RIDGING CENTERED
ALONG THE LA COAST AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED CONVECTION
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION FOR THE AREA
TERMINALS ATTM. THE CU FIELD WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH AC/CIRRUS CIGS WILL LINGER (AND POSSIBLY EXPAND
OVERNIGHT) AFFECTING ALL BUT LFK). SOME LOW STRATUS/STRATOCU MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LOWER E TX, BUT BELOW ANY CIGS (IF ANY) WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE
QUICKLY LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT BY MID MORNING. A WEAK CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE MID LEVEL CIGS ALSO EXPECTED TO THIN/DIMINISH
AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WSW WINDS 5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LIGHT S OR LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 95 76 96 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 77 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 72 93 72 94 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 75 95 75 97 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 74 96 74 97 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 76 94 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 75 95 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 75 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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