528
FXUS64 KSHV 180538
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1238 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME THE KEY PLAYER TO OUR FORECAST FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO VIRTUALLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
- UPPER RIDGING MEANS VIRTUALLY NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE 7-DAY
FORECAST.
- UPPER RIDGING ALSO MEANS OUR FOUR STATE REGION WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SUMMER BY THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
EARLIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, OUR REGION LIKELY SAW
THE END OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS A WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARY DID MAKE IT AS
FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WE SAY THIS BECAUSE WEAK
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD, VIRTUALLY
ENCOMPASSING OUR ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER
RIDGING WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE CHANCES. IN ADDITION,
UPPER RIDGING ALSO COMPRESSES THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH HEATS THE
ATMOSPHERE UP AND THUS, PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
BY THE TIME WE PIVOT INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY AND IT'S THIS PATTERN
THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS
SUMMER ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AND NEAR 100 TO
NEAR 103 DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WE
SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF
THE DAY ACROSS MOST AREAS NEXT WEEK BUT REGARDLESS, HEAT INDICES
WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES ACROSS MOST AREAS AND THUS,
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
WITH THOSE CONTINUING MOST ALL OF NEXT WEEK. COULD BE FLIRTING
WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF NEXT WEEK AS WE
MAY NOT SEE DEWPOINTS MIXING DOWN AS LOW AS THEY LIKELY WILL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
ZONES.
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THIS EXCESSIVE HEAT THE NEXT 7+
DAYS IS THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WHICH COULD
BEGIN EXHIBITING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PROGS WHICH SHOW ENOUGH OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING THIS SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD OR CLOSER TO
THE SE LA COAST. EVEN IF SUCH A SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY, OUR
REGION WOULD REMAIN ON THE DRIER NORTHWEST WIDE OF SUCH SYSTEM
UNLESS PROGS ARE WAY OVERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY WAY WE WOULD SEE ANY PRECIPITATION OUT OF
SUCH SYSTEM. ALL THIS TO SAY, WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS GULF SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE TROPICS ARE THE EYE CANDY WHEN IT COMES TO
NEWS HEADLINES, THE MUCH MORE NEWS WORTHY WEATHER MAKER WHICH
EVERYONE SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACROSS OUR REGION IS THE INTENSE HEAT
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 OR MORE. HEAT THAT CAN KILL IF YOU ARE NOT
PREPARED FOR IT.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS, SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME LOWERING TO SCT MVFR DECKS NEAR OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE WILL BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY AT OUR EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING AND A FAIR WX CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 93 72 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 95 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 94 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 95 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 94 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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