219
FXUS64 KSHV 182334
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- UPPER-RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO ALL OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE.
- UPPER-RIDGE WILL GENERATE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR
THIS SUMMER WITH HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY NEEDED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST TO
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE: ONE ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA. THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION DESPITE BEING SQUEEZED BY THE WESTWARD DRIFTING GULF LOW.
BY MONDAY, THE PREVAILING RIDGE TO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS COLORADO, WHICH WILL SECURE A DRY PATTERN ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDING FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THUS, WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM THE UPPER-RIDGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES. AS THE UPPER-RIDGE STRENGTHENS,
TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES, PROMPTING
HEAT HEADLINES.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR TO INFILTRATE
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY STILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS COULD ALLOW
FOR LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES, MITIGATING THE NEED FOR ADVISORIES
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PLACES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE OF TERMINAL
IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS PACKAGE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND SCATTER LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
19/12Z BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
/05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 72 95 73 97 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 74 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 75 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 75 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 74 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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