524
FXUS64 KSHV 190501
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- PERSISTENCE CONTINUES TO BE THE RULE OF THUMB WITH THIS
FORECAST WITH THE KEY MESSAGING SURROUNDING THE UPCOMING HEAT
WAVE.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
WE BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR EVEN
HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IF NOT TUE THEN ESPECIALLY ON WED.
- WE CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND OF HEAT ADVISORIES FOR
SUNDAY BUT THIS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND MORE AREAWIDE FOR
TUE INTO WED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
UPPER RIDGING THIS LATE HOUR IN THE EVENING APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED
ACROSS DEEP S TX TOWARDS THE UPPER SE TX COAST AND INTO PORTIONS
OF N LA WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE IN THE FORM OF DRIER PWATS, WHICH OUR REGION SAW A
GLIMPSE UP TODAY, SHOULD BE MORE APPARENT ACROSS OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF. THE
PROBLEM WITH THIS IS AS WE SEE MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF
LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET A LITTLE HOTTER AND THUS, MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES ARE A WASH SO TO SPEAK. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT WE WILL SEE
POCKETS OF 105+ DEGREES MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES BUT POCKETS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHERN ZONES BY THE TIME WE GET
INTO MONDAY. THUS, WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY KIND OF HEAT ADVISORY
UNTIL POSSIBLY MONDAY.
AS THE FORECAST PIVOTS INTO TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY, AN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST, INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE UPPER AND MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY. BY TUESDAY, WE ARE EASILY SEEING 850MB TEMPS
NORTH OF 24 DEG/C ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION WITH POCKETS OF 26
DEG/C ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF AND VALUES PERHAPS APPROACHING 27
TO 28 DEG/C ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF BY WEDNESDAY. ALL THIS TO
SAY, TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS POISED TO IMPACT MOST OF IF NOT ALL OUR
REGION ON TUE AND IF NOT TUE, DEFINITELY BY WEDNESDAY OF THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES OF THIS MAGNITUDE
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY HAS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR REGION
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES BY WED AND DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO REACHING
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA OF WIDESPREAD 110+ DEGREE HEAT
INDICES ACROSS AT LEAST OUR EASTERN HALF WED AFTN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST COULD GET A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING, DEPENDING ON WHAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NE GULF BEGINS TO DO. THERE HAS BEEN DESCENT CONSENSUS BETWEEN
LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THIS CUTOFF TROUGH BEGINNING TO
EXHIBIT TROPICAL LIKE CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
WITH THE FEATURE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD, PARALLEL
TO THE N GULF COAST. OUR UPPER RIDGE BY WED INTO THU IS STILL
FIRMLY ANCHORED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME SO A NORTHWESTWARD TURN POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR REGION
SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY. A MORE WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST MOVING SYSTEM
BY THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK COULD RESULT IN AN
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD ACROSS AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN MOST
ZONES WHICH COULD HELP TO OFFSET OUR HEAT SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE, A
CONTINUATION OF HEAT PRODUCTS APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LOTS OF TIME TO DIAGNOSE THESE
POSSIBILITIES BUT THE KEY MESSAGE ACROSS OUR REGION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE AND ITS POTENTIAL MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEAT RISK IMPACTS THIS WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PLACES AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE OF TERMINAL
IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS PACKAGE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND SCATTER LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH A SLOW SHIFT TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
19/12Z BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 77 97 78/ 0 0 0 0
MLU 97 78 99 79/ 0 0 0 0
DEQ 94 75 96 75/ 0 0 0 0
TXK 100 79 101 79/ 0 0 0 0
ELD 95 75 97 76/ 0 0 0 0
TYR 95 76 97 77/ 0 0 0 0
GGG 94 77 96 77/ 0 0 0 0
LFK 96 76 97 76/ 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57
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