251
FXUS64 KSHV 191726
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1226 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- A HOT AND DRY FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
- HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 105 EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105 ON TUESDAY AND MAYBE WEDNESDAY
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IN THE NORTHEAST GULF IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTLINES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH HEAT BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AN UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM COLORADO INTO OKLAHOMA AND INTO EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO STRENGTHEN AREAWIDE DRIVING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINT VALUES TO
LINGER NEAR THE LOWER 70S THROUGH MIDWEEK. TRENDS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS, ALONG WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, SUGGEST THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES
MAY BE INCHING CLOSER TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. HOWEVER, WITH
CONDITIONS STILL BEING MARGINAL, AND ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS AFTERNOONS HEAT INDEX OBSERVATIONS
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED, AN ADVISORY FOR MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, BY TUESDAY,
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES WOULD PROMPT
AN ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO
COMPETING SYNOPTIC FEATURES. A DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL DRIFT WEST ALONG THE COASTLINE BRINGING
IMPACTS TO MAINLY SOUTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ARKLATEX, INCREASED CLOUD-COVER
AND DEEPENING MOISTURE COULD OFFSET THE TEMPERATURE SURGE
GENERATED BY THE PREVAILING RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND EAST
TEXAS MAY RESULT IN THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THESE AREAS FROM EVENING WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD IT REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HOT AND DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH SATURDAY.
/05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT, SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND ASSOCIATED VSBY REDUCTIONS AT
OUR EAST TEXAS TERMINALS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, AND FAIR WX CU TO
FOLLOW ACROSS AREA AIRSPACE INTO THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERING OUT
AFTER EVENING. WINDS WILL ADOPT A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NO MORE THAN 5 TO 10
KTS, RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY AS SPEEDS DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 97 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 75 96 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 79 101 78 101 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 75 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 76 97 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 77 96 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 76 98 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...26
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