761
FXUS64 KSHV 200501
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION
BEGINNING AT 9AM MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 8PM
MONDAY EVENING. HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
- KEY QUESTION IS WILL THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUE BEYOND
WEDNESDAY OR COULD WHAT SHOULD BE TROPICAL STORM BERTHA BY THAT
TIME OFF THE SE TX/SW LA COAST HELP OFFSET THE HEAT SOME.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH AN OFFSHORE BERTHA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DO NOT LOOK PROMISING BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
SUNDAY WE SAW JUST A TASTE OF THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT WE'VE BEEN
DISCUSSING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS DUE IN PART TO WEAK UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS DID NOT MIX
DOWN AS MUCH AS IT LOOKED LIKE THEY WERE GOING TO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS RESULTED IN MORE WIDESPREAD MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ONLY BUILD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE MIDDLE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK, WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED TO OUR ALREADY EXISTING HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY,
EXPANDING THE ADVISORY TO ENCOMPASS THE REMAINDER OF OUR FOUR
STATE REGION. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING TO MAX OUT NEAR 108 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST AREAS. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PWATS ACROSS OUR EASTERN
THIRD MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AGAIN ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES SO ADDED THIS TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.
AS THE KEY MESSAGES HEADLINE ABOVE READS, THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH OF THESE DAYS LOOKING LIKE THE
HOTTEST OF THE WEEK WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF TRIPLE DIGIT AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS MORE OF OUR REGION. BEYOND WEDNESDAY,
WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCATED SOMEWHERE
OFF THE SE LA COAST AND MOVING WESTWARD, PARALLELING THE S LA
COAST. THERE APPEAR TO BE QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR THAT IS POISED TO
INFLUENCE THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THAT COULD
KEEP THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS STORM OR THE INLAND PART OF THE
STORM RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS OUR FORECAST
DEPICTS ATTM. LIKEWISE, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MIXING AND DRIER
AIR BEING INGESTED INTO THE STORM THAT COULD HELP TO OFFSET
HEATING A BIT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE THU/FRI TIMEFRAME. THIS IN
SPITE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
UPPER AND MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE
SLIGHT MODIFICATION IN TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS
WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE
STRENGTH OF THIS STORM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
GO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE APPEAR TO MAYBE RETROGRADE BACK
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT WE COULD GET BRUSHED BY A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH AND THAT COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MAINLY OUR EASTERN HALF IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING BUT HAVE
LEFT LOW CIGS OUT OF THIS PACKAGE. ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND LEAVE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KTS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 79 98 80/ 0 0 10 10
MLU 99 79 100 79/ 20 10 20 20
DEQ 95 75 99 76/ 0 0 0 0
TXK 98 78 100 78/ 0 0 10 10
ELD 96 77 100 76/ 10 10 20 20
TYR 97 78 99 80/ 0 0 0 0
GGG 98 78 100 79/ 0 0 0 0
LFK 97 75 99 77/ 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57
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