513
FXUS64 KSHV 210506
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- UPGRADED NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 115 DEGREES POSSIBLE
TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THIS
EVENING.
- ANOTHER EXCESSIVELY HOT DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR REGION
FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT ON THURSDAY.
- NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IN THE NORTHERN GULF LOOKS
TO HAVE VERY LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ACROSS OUR REGION BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING TRIPLE
DIGITS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER WAS FELT ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ON
MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
AND HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 110S TO NEAR 105 ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY THERE ARE AT LEAST A
COUPLE MORE DAYS OF THIS KIND OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT BEFORE A WEAK
COLD FRONT BACKDOORS ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY HELPING TO OFFSET TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THIS
WILL KEEP TOASTY TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE ARE STRUGGLING TO SEE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
MIX DOWN ENOUGH TO GO WITH THIS INCREASING NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
AMBIENT HEAT, HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES BY LATE
MORNING, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING TODAY
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE
UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO A EXTREME HEAT WARNING NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE AND TEXARKANA TEXAS TO
MAGNOLIA ARKANSAS, TO HOMER, RUSTON, AND COLFAX, LOUISIANA.
ELSEWHERE, THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING AS DEWPOINTS MAY MIX DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES JUST UNDER 110 DEGREES. CANNOT RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD AS PWATS ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
GO ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION,
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT DOWN WITH IT
INTO THE MID MISS AND TENN VALLEYS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN
MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WITH
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE BACKDOORING COOL
FRONT, THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE ITS HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
WED AFTERNOON WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE CORRIDOR. COULD SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR EASTERN
HALF ONCE AGAIN ON WED AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH INCREASED FORCING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLANKING UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE A TAD COOLER ACROSS MOST
AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
PERHAPS EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF A WEAKENING BERTHA
NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE S LA COAST MAY ALSO HELP TO OFFSET
TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. PROGS ARE STILL VERY DRY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN THIRD EVEN WITH OUR REGION IN SUCH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
WEAKENING BERTHA AND THIS IS DUE IN PART TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE STORM. THIS NOT ONLY SHOULD HAMPER ANY MORE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TO BERTHA BUT WILL ALSO RESTRICT RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS WELL.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, CAN'T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AS ADDITIONAL
FORCING FROM YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
OUACHITAS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MAY GENERATE AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS OUR REGION AND THAT MEANS A WARMING TREND ONCE AGAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR REGION APPROACH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ONCE AGAIN AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AND MORE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SOME VCTS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR NORTHEAST SITES TO ALIGN WITH RECENT RADAR
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME: LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TURNING NORTHWEST TOMORROW. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 82 100 77/ 10 10 0 0
MLU 101 81 99 76/ 20 20 0 0
DEQ 100 78 97 73/ 10 10 0 0
TXK 101 80 99 75/ 10 10 0 0
ELD 98 78 97 73/ 20 20 0 0
TYR 100 82 102 78/ 0 0 0 0
GGG 100 82 102 77/ 0 0 0 0
LFK 98 80 102 79/ 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>003-010>012-017-
018.
OK...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ096-
097.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57
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