739
FXUS64 KSHV 061053
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
553 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- WHILE WE WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA, SUMMERTIME
HEAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND WILL KEEP THE ARK-LA-TX ON ITS EASTERN FRINGES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP HEAT AS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL RAIN.
RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES LOWER AND
KEEP US AWAY FROM HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SHOULD THE TREND
CONTINUE. SOME SCATTERED POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT, BUT
WPC D1-3 QPF ESTIMATES ARE STILL GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES.
THE HEAT AND LACK OF ACCUMULATING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WORSENING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS A FOCUS FOR THE NEAR
FUTURE.
BY SUNDAY, THE WESTERN HIGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FOUR STATE REGION. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, THE DIFFERING UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW COULD CREATE MORE OF A DISPARITY BETWEEN THE AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN. THE NBM IS TARGETING PARTS OF DEEP EAST TX AND CENTRAL LA AS
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH COULD BE DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THESE
AREAS. THIS IS ONLY ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THIS FAR OUT. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO INCLUDE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE TO BEGIN
THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE BUT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND WERE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF
OUR LFK AND TYR TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, DID TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE
BUT THE REMAINDER OF OUR AIRSPACE WILL NEED TO AWAIT DAYTIME
HEATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DESCENT CU FIELD TODAY. GIVEN
STORM COVERAGE ON WED AND GIVEN THE WEAKNESS PRESENT ALOFT AND
THE AVAILABLE PWAT, DID MENTION VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL BUT THE TYR TERMINAL. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 76 95 76 / 30 10 20 0
MLU 100 74 95 74 / 40 10 20 10
DEQ 99 73 96 72 / 0 0 20 20
TXK 99 76 95 75 / 20 0 20 20
ELD 100 73 94 73 / 20 10 20 10
TYR 100 76 97 75 / 10 0 20 0
GGG 101 75 96 74 / 20 10 20 0
LFK 99 74 94 73 / 20 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page