560
FXUS64 KSHV 062355 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
655 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. REMAINING BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA, BUT
SENSITIVE GROUPS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ROUTINE PRECAUTIONS.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST. A FEW GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
BASED ON RECENT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS AND
EXPECTING SIMILAR BEHAVIOR TODAY, SLIGHTLY EXPANDED POPS NORTH FROM
NBM GUIDANCE, RUNNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED CONVECTION LIGHTING UP IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA, EXPECTING INCREASING COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IN THE COMING HOURS. AS WITH YESTERDAY, GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WIND GUSTS RESULTING FROM
DECAYING STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. DEVELOPING
CU FIELD SOUTH AND EAST MAY LIMIT RUNAWAY HEATING SOMEWHAT, BUT
STILL EXPECTING SUMMER SUN TO PROPEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S
NORTH AND WEST. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ENOUGH TO NOT MERIT
HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEPS THE ARKLATEX JUST BEYOND THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THUS KEEPING THE
FORECAST IN A "RINSE AND REPEAT" CYCLE FOR THE TIME BEING, WITH
WARM, MUGGY NIGHTS IN THE 70S, QUICK WARMING THROUGH THE MORNING TO
HIGHS IN THE 90S, AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST. THIS
EFFECT MAY BE REINFORCED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUILDS WESTWARDS, ADDING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
COMPONENT TO OUR SOUTHERLY STEERING. AS OF THIS WRITING, RAIN
CHANCES HAVE BACKED OFF FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
JUST GRAZING OUR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BORDERS, DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET AND RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTH THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE MODERATED SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, BEFORE WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. IT REMAINS TOO SOON TO ASSESS WHETHER OR NOT HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY, BUT WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. SENSITIVE GROUPS ARE STILL ADVISED
TO TAKE ROUTINE PRECAUTIONS.
PENDLETON/MOORE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE 07/00Z
TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT ANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELD.
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS N
LA/SRN AR/PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN TX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING
BEFORE THINNING, WITH SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED CU ALSO PERSISTING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS WELL. SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR
STRATOCU DEVELOP AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF CIGS ACROSS
THESE AREAS (AND POSSIBLY LFK), BEFORE LIFTING INTO A SCATTERED CU
FIELD AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN REDEVELOP BY THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SHOULD
HAVE REDUCED COVERAGE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND BREVITY OF THIS OCCURRING AT THE
AREA TERMINALS, HAVE OMITTED VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. SSW
WINDS 3-7KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSW 5-8KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 95 76 94 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 74 95 75 96 / 20 10 10 20
DEQ 73 96 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 76 95 76 95 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 73 94 74 94 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 76 97 76 97 / 0 10 10 10
GGG 74 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 74 95 74 95 / 10 10 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...15
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