838
FXUS64 KSHV 070435
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1135 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. REMAINING BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA, BUT
SENSITIVE GROUPS ARE ADVISED TO TAKE ROUTINE PRECAUTIONS.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY
SOUTH AND EAST. A FEW GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT RAIN
LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE
FORCING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS EVENING WITH THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES REACHING THE ARK-
LA-TX. THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THIS HIGH WAS EVIDENT ON THE
00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING. THIS WILL WORK TO INHIBIT MOST ORGANIZED
RAINFALL APART FROM THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FOCUSING ON NORTH/CENTRAL LA AND DEEP EAST TX AS THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS, BUT ACCUMULATION
ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE HIGH AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO ORGANIZE SHOWERS INTO SOMETHING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL. THERE ISN'T A SEVERE OR FLOODING CONCERN FOR FRIDAY
AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR MORE MODEL
AGREEMENT.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ITS PREVIOUS POSITION WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN THE
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND CUTS THE SOUTHERN CONUS OFF FROM THE
LARGER ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WON'T BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE FOR OUR LONG-TERM FORECAST: MORE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH
RAIN LIMITED TO AFTERNOON POP-UPS. GROUPS SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE
SHOULD BE AWARE OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES AND WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
AND WORK TO MITIGATE RISKS.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE 07/00Z
TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING, BUT SHOULD NOT
AFFECT ANY OF THE AREA TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELD.
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL ALSO LINGER ACROSS N
LA/SRN AR/PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN TX THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING
BEFORE THINNING, WITH SOME RESIDUAL ELEVATED CU ALSO PERSISTING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS WELL. SHOULD SEE LOW MVFR
STRATOCU DEVELOP AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF CIGS ACROSS
THESE AREAS (AND POSSIBLY LFK), BEFORE LIFTING INTO A SCATTERED CU
FIELD AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
AGAIN REDEVELOP BY THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SHOULD
HAVE REDUCED COVERAGE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND BREVITY OF THIS OCCURRING AT THE
AREA TERMINALS, HAVE OMITTED VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. SSW
WINDS 3-7KTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSW 5-8KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 75 95 76 / 30 20 10 10
MLU 96 74 95 75 / 40 20 10 10
DEQ 98 73 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 96 76 95 76 / 30 20 10 10
ELD 97 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 10
TYR 98 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 10
GGG 98 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 10
LFK 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...15
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