971
FXUS64 KSHV 080442
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES.
- FIRE WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN WITH
THE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TAKE CAUTION DURING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO PREVENT FIRE STARTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
RADAR HAS BEEN DYING DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND STORMS GUSTING OUT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION MENTIONED MODELS HIGHLIGHTING A LOW RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORMS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING WILL
REINTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD BETTER INITIALIZATION COMPARED TO RUNS FROM
EARLIER TODAY AND HAVE SHOWERS FROM THIS MCV CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
ALMOST WITHOUT EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO HANG
AROUND UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING BUT NOTHING LIKE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE
GREATEST RISK. THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
BUT ANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WPC DOES HAVE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-TX UNDER MARGINAL ERO'S THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR URBAN FLOODING SHOULD ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THEM. THERE
IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE SHOWERS FORM. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, MAKING WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
FOR THE 07/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD WITH BASES RANGING BETWEEN 4-6KFT.
VERY SPOTTY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NE LA.
THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KMLU THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF OUR TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION
UNTIL LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM
THE OZARKS INTO OUR NORTHERN AIRSPACE CLOSER TO 08/06Z SO HAVE
ADDED VCTS AT KTXK AND KELD DURING THE 06Z-09Z TIMEFRAME SATURDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD VCSH LATER IN
THE MORNING ALONG OUR I-20 TERMINALS WITH AN EXPECTATION OF THIS
CONVECTION WEAKENING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS ITS SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LOW VFR CIGS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE LIGHT AND
OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL WITH A PREDOMINANT S/SW FETCH.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 95 75 94 / 10 40 10 30
MLU 74 94 73 94 / 10 60 20 30
DEQ 71 93 71 95 / 40 30 0 0
TXK 75 94 74 95 / 30 50 10 10
ELD 71 90 71 92 / 30 80 20 30
TYR 75 97 75 96 / 20 30 20 10
GGG 74 97 74 96 / 10 40 10 10
LFK 73 96 74 94 / 0 10 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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