706
FXUS64 KSHV 080533
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES.
- FIRE WEATHER AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN WITH
THE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. TAKE CAUTION DURING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO PREVENT FIRE STARTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
RADAR HAS BEEN DYING DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND STORMS GUSTING OUT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION MENTIONED MODELS HIGHLIGHTING A LOW RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING STORMS, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING WILL
REINTENSIFY ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY. RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE HAD BETTER INITIALIZATION COMPARED TO RUNS FROM
EARLIER TODAY AND HAVE SHOWERS FROM THIS MCV CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
ALMOST WITHOUT EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO HANG
AROUND UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING BUT NOTHING LIKE PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES HAVING THE
GREATEST RISK. THESE AREAS SHOULD HAVE DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
BUT ANY AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WPC DOES HAVE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARK-LA-TX UNDER MARGINAL ERO'S THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR URBAN FLOODING SHOULD ANY SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THEM. THERE
IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT
RAIN MAKERS, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE SHOWERS FORM. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK, MAKING WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LIKELY.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOR THE 08/06Z TAF PERIOD...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN AND AROUND KELD/KTXK AT THIS HOUR, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BUT, THERE WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. THE
EXACT LOCATIONS REMAIN IN QUESTION, SO DECIDED TO GO WITH VCTS IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 94 76 94 / 10 30 0 10
MLU 73 94 74 94 / 20 30 10 10
DEQ 71 95 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 74 95 75 96 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 71 92 72 94 / 20 30 10 10
TYR 75 96 75 96 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 74 96 74 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 74 94 74 92 / 20 20 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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