416
FXUS64 KSHV 081932
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
232 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- BEST CHANCES FOR DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7-DAYS WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CHANCES WON'T BE ZERO OUTSIDE OF TODAY,
THEY WILL CERTAINLY BE LIMITED.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW HAZARD CRITERIA, THEY WILL BE
BORDERLINE AND IT WILL BE HOT NONETHELESS.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE RADAR HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE TODAY, MAINLY AROUND AND NEAR THE
I-30 CORRIDOR, WHERE A VERY SLOW MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DROPPED A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY DID COVER A LARGE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, THERE REMAINS
LARGE PORTIONS OF COUNTIES THAT GOT NO RAIN. FOR EXAMPLE, 6-HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS ESTIMATED UPWARDS OF 3-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY, WITH NO RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY. SO WHILE IT WILL GIVE SOME RELIEF IN
DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD HELP. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
HOWEVER, THEY HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THIS VERY WELL, SO I KEPT
POPS GOING TILL AROUND MIDNIGHT. TODAY LOOKS LIKE OUR LAST GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WE
STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES: IT'S THE SOUTH, ITS HALFWAY BETWEEN THE START AND
MIDDLE OF AUGUST...IT IS GOING TO BE HOT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
HOT. IN TERMS OF AMBIENT AFTERNOON HIGHS, THE STORY CONTINUES THAT
WE WILL BE STAGNANT, MEANING NOT MUCH VARIABILITY IN DAILY
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SIMILARLY,
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE SAME TREND. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE THE
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME 100S SPRINKLED IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO WHAT WE SEE THROUGH TUESDAY) WILL LAST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SO I GUESS TO SUM THAT UP, IT IS GOING TO BE
HOT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN GET HOTTER FROM THERE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED EACH DAY, REACHING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 100S, BUT STILL NOT SEEING ENOUGH TO ISSUE
ANY SORT OF HEAT HEADLINES FOR AT LEAST SUNDAY. MOVING INTO MONDAY
AND NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. /33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOR THE 08/18Z TAF PERIOD, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
OUR AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THE ADDITION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY EXPAND FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-30 CORRIDOR WHERE KTXK
IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING TSRA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SOME
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AIRSPACE SO
ALL SITES ARE ON THE HOOK FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF VCTS AND LIKELY
WILL REQUIRE TEMPO TSRA LATER IN THE PERIOD. FOR NOW, WILL ACCOUNT
FOR THIS WILL AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED GIVEN THE MORE ERRATIC NATURE OF
THESE STORMS AND THEIR MOVEMENT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR THIS CONVECTION
TO DIMINISH NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH SOME MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND FOG CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF OUR AIRSPACE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY CONVECTION. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT
ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 95 77 95 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 74 95 75 96 / 10 30 0 10
DEQ 70 96 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 74 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 71 93 73 95 / 20 20 0 10
TYR 76 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 75 97 74 97 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 74 95 74 94 / 20 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...19
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