265
FXUS64 KSHV 111156
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
656 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEK, WITH SOME OF THE
HOTTEST CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, BRINGING VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUED DRYING TRENDS.
- THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY FUELS, INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
TWO AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ONE OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STABLE PATTERN WILL WORK TO
INHIBIT ANY RAIN AND WORSEN HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND LOW 100S, WHICH WILL QUICKLY BRING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
MAIN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WHEN THE FIRST ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED. AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY AROUND 100-105. THE 105 THRESHOLD DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PRODUCT JUST YET BUT NEW
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT COULD FORCE THE HAND OF THE MORNING SHIFT.
WITH TUESDAY LIKELY BEING THE COOLEST OF THE UPCOMING DAYS, A HEAT
PRODUCT IS ALMOST CERTAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK, WITH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEING PROMISING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES.
THE SHIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT QUICKLY. WPC D1-7 QPF IS
RELATIVELY OPTIMISTIC IN THEIR SPRINKLING OF "TRACE" AMOUNTS IN
PARTS OF THE CWA, BUT I WOULDN'T BET ON SEEING MUCH. EXPECT
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE PROLONGED HEAT AND LACK OF
RAIN. IN ADDITION, FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN AS
FUELS QUICKLY DRY OUT, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS AND
EASIER FIRE SPREAD.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
FOR THE 11/12Z TAF PERIOD...A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND
AFTERNOON CU. THERE IS SOME HINT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS RETURNING INTO
THE AIRSPACE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, MAINLY ACROSS OUR EAST
TEXAS SITES. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING
THE PERIOD TO BETWEEN 7-12 MPH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 97 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 98 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 96 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 97 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 97 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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