106
FXUS64 KSHV 111728
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEK, WITH SOME OF THE
HOTTEST CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, BRINGING VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUED DRYING TRENDS.
- THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY FUELS, INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
TWO AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ONE OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STABLE PATTERN WILL WORK TO
INHIBIT ANY RAIN AND WORSEN HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND LOW 100S, WHICH WILL QUICKLY BRING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
MAIN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WHEN THE FIRST ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED. AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY AROUND 100-105. THE 105 THRESHOLD DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PRODUCT JUST YET BUT NEW
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT COULD FORCE THE HAND OF THE MORNING SHIFT.
WITH TUESDAY LIKELY BEING THE COOLEST OF THE UPCOMING DAYS, A HEAT
PRODUCT IS ALMOST CERTAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK, WITH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEING PROMISING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES.
THE SHIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT QUICKLY. WPC D1-7 QPF IS
RELATIVELY OPTIMISTIC IN THEIR SPRINKLING OF "TRACE" AMOUNTS IN
PARTS OF THE CWA, BUT I WOULDN'T BET ON SEEING MUCH. EXPECT
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE PROLONGED HEAT AND LACK OF
RAIN. IN ADDITION, FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN AS
FUELS QUICKLY DRY OUT, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS AND
EASIER FIRE SPREAD.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
AS EXPECTED, DIURNALLY INDUCED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NE
TX, SW AR AND ALL OF N LA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN BEGINNING TO
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST
TEXAS. FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE, CHOSE NOT TO MENTION ANY WX WITH
THESE TAFS AS STORM COVERAGE IS BEST HANDLED WITH AN AMD IF
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED CU FIELD SHOULD FAIR OFF NEAR OR
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS NEAR OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS, POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE LFK/TYR/GGG
TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT THESE SAME CONDITIONS JUST AFTER
SUNRISE AT THE SHV/TXK TERMINALS AS WELL. EVENTUALLY, ANY MORNING
CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING
ON WEDNESDAY OR TOWARDS THE END OF THIS 24HR TAF PACKAGE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 75 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 78 98 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 77 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 75 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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