594
FXUS64 KSHV 120034
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.
- DESPITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE
MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE IMPACT OUR DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND INCREASE OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
I WAS ON THE FENCE ABOUT PUTTING OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY AS
WE WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE AT BEST. AFTER MUCH CONSIDERATION AND
DELIBERATION WITH NEIGHBORS, I ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ONE
FOR TODAY AND CONTINUE IT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN REASON
FOR ISSUING TODAY WAS BECAUSE OF OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHED
YESTERDAY, WE HAD A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS THAT WERE ABLE TO GET
ABOVE THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD, AND I THINK WE WILL BE ABLE TO
REACH THIS IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS WELL TODAY. I DON'T THINK WE WILL
HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM REACHING OUR THRESHOLD FOR HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHICH IS WHY I DECIDED TO TAKE IT OUT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE ARE ANY AREAS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK THAT NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING.
WE ARE SEEING A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS STARTING TO POP UP ON
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON, AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW AREAS
IN LOUISIANA WITH SOME GROWING CU. AS A RESULT, I WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SOME 20 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20
IN TEXAS AND THEN THE MAJORITY OF OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, ALTHOUGH I COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL THAT
WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AT TIMES, BUT I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER, THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO WORSEN AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TO INCREASE. SOMETHING THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
/33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX, VFR THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
ROAMING SW TO NE NEAR CADDO LAKE AND A COUPLE DOWN NEAR KJAS. SFC
WINDS ARE S/SW AND WE ARE SW ALOFT INTO FLIGHT LEVELS 10-30KT. WE
DID SEE SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY TODAY AND MODELS ARE HALF IN HALF
OUT ON A REPEAT, SO TO ERR ON THE LACK OF CHANGE WE'LL ROLL WITH
MORE MVFR 12-17Z WITH A RUBBER STAMP ON A 10% CHANCE FOR ANY
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED IN OVERHEAD AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 98 78 98 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 74 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 76 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 76 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 75 99 75 99 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 74 97 75 97 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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