569
FXUS64 KSHV 282343 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY COMING
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY.
- EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN DEEP EAST TEXAS,
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. WIDESPREAD HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE COMBINATION OF A DIFFUSE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
AREA AND A WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD HELP TO INITIATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 WHERE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS THE HIGHEST. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND DIRECTLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN EVEN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES, GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD RESULT IN A
GOOD VERTICAL MIXING. THIS MAY KEEP DEWPOINTS AND PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES JUST LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND.
OUR CRITERIA IS FOR TWO OR MORE CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES ABOVE 105 DEGREES F FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SOME LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA, BUT MOST LIKELY NOT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
EXCEPTION MIGHT BE IN THE SAM RAYBURN AND TOLEDO BEND AREAS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS, BUT THAT'S VERY UNCERTAIN.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY TOWARDS
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO DRIFT INTO
THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACKS. THE LATEST GFS
BRINGS THE LOW DIRECTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE
LATEST NAM IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH, KEEPING THE LOW ALONG THE COAST
AND NOT SHOWING MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN UNTIL WEST OF THE SABINE
RIVER. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY, WHAT'S LEFT OF DOLLY SHOULD BE
VERY WEAK BY THIS TIME. ON MONDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TOLEDO BEND DAM TO MONROE,
BUT EVEN THOUGH AREN'T VERY SIGNIFICANT. RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
AFTER TUESDAY, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE GROWING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HUMIDITY. AS RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES F IN MOST LOCATIONS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD BE ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
/NUTTALL/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THERE ARE A STILL A FEW WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS OUT THERE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 AS I WRITE THIS, BUT THOSE WILL COMPLETELY
DISAPPEAR WITHIN A FEW HOURS AND LEAVE A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE MAINLY FROM AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 MPH, BUT ALL SITES SHOULD MAINLY GO TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY MID TO LATE EVENING. NO MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS EITHER HIGHLY VARIABLE OR FROM THE ESE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN SOME EAST TX
SITES, SUCH AS TYR, WHERE MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 8 TO 12 MPH
RANGE ARE ANTICIPATED. THE DIURNAL CU FIELD SHOULD BE MORE
SUPPRESSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TOMORROW WITH BASES BY MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON IN THE 5 TO 8 KFT RANGE. EXPECT CONVECTION TOMORROW
AFTERNOON TO BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY AND LIMITED SOUTH OF
I-20, ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF IMPACT AT ANY TAF SITE ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
/09/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 71 97 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 68 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 71 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 69 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 75 99 75 99 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 73 99 73 99 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 75 98 74 98 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...50
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