139
FXUS64 KSHV 301854
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
154 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID-SOUTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 100 TO 105 AND HEAT STRESS MAINLY REMAINING BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
- SOME RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RETURNING THIS WEEK, MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20 AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST, ALSO
ADDING HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SIMILAR, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER, IN
MANY AREAS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT EARLY AFTERNOON. A MINOR
LOW LEVERAGE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES (SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
/ NORTH-CENTRAL LA / CENTRAL LA) IS ENHANCING DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT THERE AND MAY SPARK A STRAY AND BRIEF SHOWER, OR VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF RAIN AT
ANY LOCATION ARE STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING NOT TOO FAR ABOVE
AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TODAY, MEANING PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES, WHICH IS JUST A BIT
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT STRAY SHOWERS, IF ANY, TO
DIMINISH QUICKLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A DRY AND WARM NIGHT.
STARTING TOMORROW, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TRYING TO WEAKLY
ORGANIZE OFF THE SE LA COAST WILL HAVE MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER, AT LEAST SOUTH OF I-20. THE NHC ONLY MAINTAINS A 30% CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM ACHIEVING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT LIKELY PUSHES
EASTWARD TOWARD AND INTO THE SE TX COAST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
RAIN CHANCES TIED TO THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN TOWARD
THE COAST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL LA CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. THAT SAID, EXPECT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE SUBTLY INCREASING TOMORROW WITH THIS TREND
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL, IN TURN, INCREASE HUMIDITY
VALUES OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS, MEANING HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL TREND MORE THAN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL BE BALANCED BY INCREASING DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO KEEP US FROM NEEDING A HEAT ADVISORY.
BUT REACHING CRITERIA CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME AREAS OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WE WILL MAKE DECISIONS ON WHETHER
OR NOT TO HOIST THOSE PRODUCTS ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THE INCREASING MOISTURE RELATED TO TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO INDUCE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF I-20 BY TUESDAY -
ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (> 0.25 INCHES) IS
REALLY JUST LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF DEEP EAST TX AND
CENTRAL LA.
ANY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN OUR AREA DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE
LIMITED TO DEEP EAST TEXAS, ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
CONTRIBUTING TO A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOST HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHY OF 100 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES AT LEAST IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE REPOSITIONING NORTH OF OUR AREA,
COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, SHOULD
MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT SIMILAR DAYS THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, MEANING 10
TO 30 PERCENT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAIN CHANCES WITH HEAT
STRESS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AS ALWAYS, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FROM UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
ON THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS MAY OPEN THE
DOOR TO A STORMIER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH BACKDOORING
BOUNDARIES TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE NE. BUT AGAIN, THERE IS JUST
ONE SCENARIO AND THE LATEST MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DOES NOT
YET SUGGEST AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. /50/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE, MAINTAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE REGAINING
SOME SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS AND AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 71 100 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 75 98 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 75 100 76 98 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 74 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 74 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...50
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page