802
FXUS64 KSHV 311649
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
5.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
FOR THE FINAL DAY IN AUGUST, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
MOVING INTO SEPTEMBER, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HEAT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST
INTO THE APPLACHIANS. THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA TO SWING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
TO THE LAKES REGION OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE PLACES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDWEEK WHICH COULD BE IDEAL FOR PRODUCING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE ALREADY DROUGHT STRIKEN ARKLATEX, BUT COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT MATERIALIZES. AT THIS TIME NO
SUCH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL EXISTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRUDENTLY MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY SIGNS OF THIS TYPE OF THREAT
MANIFESTING IN LATER MODEL CYCLES.
A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA LATE IN THE WORKWEEK, UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS
THE EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MIXING TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 31/12Z TAF PERIOD. AN
AREA OF LOW AC CIGS OVER MUCH OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF SW AR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
THINNING, WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY THIS TIME OR
MIDDAY AREAWIDE. WHILE THIS CU WILL LIFT INTO A LOW AC FIELD BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEY SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LOWER CU POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER DEEP E TX/WRN LA AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NRN GULF JUST S OF THE LA COAST DRIFTS WNW TOWARDS THE EXTREME SE
TX COAST. ANY LOWER CIGS/CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SSE OF THE LFK
TERMINAL THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER SE
AND DEEP E TX. VRB WINDS AROUND 5KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ESE
5-8KTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT, EXCEPT LT/VRB AFTER 00Z AT MLU/ELD.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 77 97 74 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 99 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 101 77 100 75 / 0 0 10 20
GGG 101 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 20
LFK 98 75 95 74 / 10 0 70 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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