346
FXUS64 KSHV 311740
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
5.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
FOR THE FINAL DAY IN AUGUST, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
MOVING INTO SEPTEMBER, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HEAT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA TO SWING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
TO THE LAKES REGION OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE PLACES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDWEEK WHICH COULD BE IDEAL FOR PRODUCING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE ALREADY DROUGHT STRICKEN ARKLATEX, BUT COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT MATERIALIZES. AT THIS TIME NO
SUCH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL EXISTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRUDENTLY MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY SIGNS OF THIS TYPE OF THREAT
MANIFESTING IN LATER MODEL CYCLES.
A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA LATE IN THE WORKWEEK, UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS
THE EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MIXING TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING CALM FOR SOME SITES
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE. THE CURRENT TRACK TAKES THE
CENTER INTO EAST CENTRAL TX BUT OUTER RAINFALL BANDS COULD REACH
AS FAR AS KLFK OR KTYR. VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KLFK IN THIS
PACKAGE DUE TO RELATIVELY HIGHER CONFIDENCE, BUT OTHER SITES
COULD SEE VICINITY IMPACTS IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE EASTERLY
TRACK. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 97 74 95 / 0 10 0 30
MLU 76 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 72 99 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 76 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 74 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 100 75 94 / 0 10 20 50
GGG 75 100 74 96 / 0 10 20 50
LFK 75 95 74 93 / 0 70 60 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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