837
FXUS64 KSHV 010555 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
5.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
FOR THE FINAL DAY IN AUGUST, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.
MOVING INTO SEPTEMBER, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HEAT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVES EAST
INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF AMERICA TO SWING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
TO THE LAKES REGION OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS DISTURBANCE PLACES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDWEEK WHICH COULD BE IDEAL FOR PRODUCING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TO THE ALREADY DROUGHT STRICKEN ARKLATEX, BUT COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT MATERIALIZES. AT THIS TIME NO
SUCH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL EXISTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
PRUDENTLY MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY SIGNS OF THIS TYPE OF THREAT
MANIFESTING IN LATER MODEL CYCLES.
A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
AMERICA LATE IN THE WORKWEEK, UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER-RIDGE ACROSS
THE EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MIXING TO LIMIT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 01/06Z TAF PERIOD. AREAS
OF CIRRUS WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LOW AC WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA OVERNIGHT TO THE N OF TS EDOUARD,
WITH SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY/AFTER 14Z
OVER THESE AREAS. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT/DEVELOP INTO A
SCATTERED CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING, WITH ELEVATED AC AND
CIRRUS CIGS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS
THE CENTER OF EDOUARD MOVES INLAND NEAR SABINE PASS/BPT AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NW ACROSS SE AND DEEP E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON,
LIKELY AFFECTING LFK. WHILE IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO TEMPO THUNDER
FOR THE LFK TERMINAL, REDUCED VSBYS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER N AND E, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS ATTM. WHILE MUCH OF THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT WNW INTO N AND CNTRL TX, WRAP-AROUND
CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AROUND EDOUARD'S CENTER AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS NW THROUGH SE TX S OF LFK. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH HERE WITH
LOWER VFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE HERE JUST BEYOND THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, AC/CIRRUS
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER E TX AND POSSIBLY WRN LA. LIGHT SE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME ESE 8-12KTS AFTER 16Z, WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER E TX. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 77 95 76 / 10 10 30 10
MLU 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 98 72 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 98 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 98 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 99 76 94 75 / 20 20 50 40
GGG 100 74 95 74 / 20 10 40 20
LFK 96 74 91 74 / 40 40 70 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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