551
FXUS64 KSHV 010706
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
206 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE
MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
- RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SOUTH OF I-20 AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
5.
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
ANOTHER MONTH IS IN THE BOOKS NOW WITH QUITE A SPECTRUM ON
RAINFALL WITH ONLY .02" OF AN INCH AT LUFKIN FOR A NEW RECORD
MINIMUM FOR AUGUST. THE PREVIOUS MINIMUM RECORD WAS .09" WAY BACK
IN 1943. MEANWHILE, SHREVEPORT, ENDED UP NEAR A HALF INCH SHY AND
TEXARKANA HAD AN EXCESS FOR ONE OF THE HIGHER TOTALS FOR THE
MONTH WITH 3.63 INCHES. AS WE LOOK TO SEPTEMBER, ONCE AGAIN LITTLE
CHANGE ON OUR TEMPERATURES OR MAX HEAT INDICES TODAY. WE WILL TRY
ANOTHER NO ADVISORY AS CALCULATIONS IN THE FORECAST BE HAVE FOR
THE MOST PART PEAK AROUND 105. SHREVEPORT HIT 105 ON MONDAY, BUT
ONLY FOR AN HOUR. OUR CRITERIA SEEKS 2 HOURS OR MORE AND
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. CURRENT THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE WIND AND SOME
ADDED CLOUDS WILL WASH THESE INCREASING DEW POINTS. AND IF NOT AN
UPDATE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON CAN ALWAYS BE SENT IF CONDITIONS
END UP EXCEEDING THE PLAN.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM NAMED EDOUARD
EARLY LAST EVENING. THE NHC CENTER IS TRACKING THE CENTER INLAND
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. (ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT NHC.NOAA.GOV) SOME OF OUR DEEP EAST
TEXAS COUNTIES ARE ON THE FRINGE OF WPC ERO'S THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
READY FOR RAINFALL, NAMELY LUFKIN. THE SPC HAS A GENERAL RISK OVER
OUR ENTIRE FOUR-STATE, EXCEEDING OUR CURRENT POP FORECAST IN
COVERAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD INTO KY/TN
TODAY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TO WEAKEN DURING THURSDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT IN THE ABSENCE OF THE RIDGE'S STEERING, THE TROPICAL
PLUME RUNNING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF STORM WILL TURN NORTHWARD
AND SLOW IT'S FORWARD SPEED. SO HOW THAT TURN UNFOLDS MAY BEAR
OUT SUDDEN CHANGES IN OUR EAST TEXAS FORECAST. REMEMBER FOR NOW WE
ARE ON THE FRINGE AS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR THAT
EVENTUALITY. HOWEVER, A SOONER TURN WOULD MEAN MORE RAINFALL.
SOMETIMES THAT HOW DROUGHTS END WITH A FLOOD, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE
GOOD. THE MAIN THREATS FOR TEXAS ARE FLOODING AND WIND, AGAIN ALL
DEPENDENT ON T.S. EDOUARD'S ONSHORE POWER.
ASIDE FROM THE SHORT TERM EXCITEMENT, SUMMER ROLLS ON FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DOLLY IS DONE FOR ALL INTENTS
PURPOSES AS THE CRUSHING SUBSIDENT RIDGE ARRIVING OVER THE SE
U.S. HAS SHEARED THE DISTURBANCE'S REMNANT. THERE IS STILL A LOAD
OF MOISTURE AND THE IMPETUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ALL SPREAD
WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE LINGERING UPPER RIDGE IN OUR DIRECTION.
THAT COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC IS MORE SHALLOW AND LESS PRONOUNCED, SO THE BACKDOORING
OF ENERGY IN OUR DIRECTION WILL BE FAR LESS. HOWEVER, EDOUARD'S
REMNANT WILL LINGER OVER NE TEXAS INTO THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME,
AND KEEP THAT OPEN TROPICAL DOOR OF HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE FOR US
TO WORK WITH DIURNALLY EACH AFTERNOON. AND PERHAPS NOCTURNALLY
CLOSE TO THE LINGERING CIRCULATION. SO WE MAY HANG ON TO ADDED
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT'S RETURN, BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR AREA, LIKELY EAST OF I-49 FOR STARTERS AND MORE
LIKELY FOR LARGER AREAS LATER THIS WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
NEWS ON THE HEAT IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HEAT RIDGE REFORMS OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND AND COULD EVEN AFFECT OUR AREA WITH
NW FLOW AND NOCTURNAL RAIN CHANCES OR A LARGER EXPANSION,
BRINGING MORE EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL AS THE 596DAM UPPER RIDGE
SETTLES OVER ARKANSAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 01/06Z TAF PERIOD. AREAS
OF CIRRUS WITH SOME ACCOMPANYING LOW AC WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD N INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA OVERNIGHT TO THE N OF
TS EDOUARD, WITH SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY/AFTER 14Z OVER THESE AREAS. THESE WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT/DEVELOP
INTO A SCATTERED CU FIELD AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING, WITH ELEVATED
AC AND CIRRUS CIGS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AS THE CENTER OF EDOUARD MOVES INLAND NEAR SABINE PASS/BPT
AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NW ACROSS SE AND DEEP E TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON, LIKELY AFFECTING LFK. WHILE IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO
TEMPO THUNDER FOR THE LFK TERMINAL, REDUCED VSBYS AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER N AND E, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS ATTM. WHILE MUCH
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SHIFT WNW INTO N AND CNTRL TX,
WRAP-AROUND CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AROUND EDOUARD'S CENTER AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS NW THROUGH SE TX S OF LFK. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH HERE
WITH LOWER VFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE JUST BEYOND THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. ELSEWHERE,
AC/CIRRUS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER E TX AND POSSIBLY WRN LA. LIGHT
SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME ESE 8-12KTS AFTER 16Z, WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER E TX. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, BUT MAY SEE MORE
POTENTIAL BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 77 95 76 / 10 10 30 10
MLU 97 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 98 72 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 98 75 97 75 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 98 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 99 76 94 75 / 20 20 50 40
GGG 100 74 95 74 / 20 10 40 20
LFK 96 74 91 74 / 40 40 70 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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