771
FXUS64 KSHV 020555
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1255 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR ALL OF OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES, GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
- WE WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
ALL EYES REMAIN HYPER-FOCUSED ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EDOUARD. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LIVINGSTON, TX. WE ARE SEEING THE NORTHERN RAIN BANDS
REACHING INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, MAINLY IN ANGELINA, SOUTHERN
SAN AUGUSTINE AND SOUTHERN SABINE COUNTIES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS EDOUARD CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD. STILL
THINKING THAT THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHERE WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING SAID, 00Z MODELS CAME IN THIS EVENING
SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF WEST AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT TEXAS COUNTIES. AS IS
ALWAYS THE CASE WITH STORMS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM, TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE I THINK THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS LOW, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION, SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION,
ALTHOUGH I DON'T THINK THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
SUGGESTED. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE ELECTED TO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EXPIRE EARLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT TODAY AND THURSDAY, BUT NOT HOT ENOUGH TO
NEED ANY SORT OF HEAT RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR THE REGION, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS AGAIN. AFTER A PLEASANT
START TO AUGUST, SEPTEMBER LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO GET US ALL
CAUGHT UP ON WHAT WE MISSED OUT ON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT THEY
WILL NOT BE ZERO. THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. /33/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF TD EDOUARD ABOUT 40NM S OF LFK WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN WRAP-AROUND MVFR CIGS ACROSS DEEP E TX, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED WRAP-AROUND SHRA EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS LFK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. THUS, CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER TO LOW MVFR HERE THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTERWARDS FARTHER N TOWARDS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFFECTING THE TYR/GGG/SHV TERMINALS, BEFORE
EVENTUALLY LIFTING AND RETURNING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPAND AROUND EDOUARD'S CENTER
AS IT DRIFTS NW INTO ECNTRL TX, WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TYR/GGG AND POSSIBLY SHV TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTION BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
CONSOLIDATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS NCNTRL
LA/SRN AR AS A SCATTERED CU FIELD AND DEVELOPING AC DEVELOP, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY THUNDER MENTION AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS
ATTM. SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER THOUGH AT TYR/LFK, WHERE MVFR
CIGS SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT SSE WINDS OVERNIGHT,
EXCEPT SE 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT LFK, WILL BECOME SE AND
INCREASE TO 8-13KTS, WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30KTS OVER E
TX. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DEEP EAST TEXAS AS THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 75 96 76 / 30 0 20 0
MLU 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 97 71 95 70 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 91 74 92 74 / 50 60 50 0
GGG 93 74 95 73 / 30 10 40 0
LFK 88 73 94 73 / 80 40 40 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ149-152-165-166.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...15
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