185
FXUS64 KSHV 021159 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
659 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS DEEP
EAST TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR ALL OF OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES, GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
- WE WILL REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
ALL EYES REMAIN HYPER-FOCUSED ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EDOUARD. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LIVINGSTON, TX. WE ARE SEEING THE NORTHERN RAIN BANDS
REACHING INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, MAINLY IN ANGELINA, SOUTHERN
SAN AUGUSTINE AND SOUTHERN SABINE COUNTIES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS EDOUARD CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD. STILL
THINKING THAT THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHERE WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING SAID, 00Z MODELS CAME IN THIS EVENING
SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS
OF WEST AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT TEXAS COUNTIES. AS IS
ALWAYS THE CASE WITH STORMS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM, TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE I THINK THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES IS LOW, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THESE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION, SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION,
ALTHOUGH I DON'T THINK THEY WILL BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY
SUGGESTED. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE ELECTED TO LET THE WIND
ADVISORY THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED EXPIRE EARLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT TODAY AND THURSDAY, BUT NOT HOT ENOUGH TO
NEED ANY SORT OF HEAT RELATED HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR THE REGION, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS AGAIN. AFTER A PLEASANT
START TO AUGUST, SEPTEMBER LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO GET US ALL
CAUGHT UP ON WHAT WE MISSED OUT ON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
LIMITED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT THEY
WILL NOT BE ZERO. THERE WILL AT LEAST BE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
LOW MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NEAR AND TO THE E OF THE
REMNANT CENTER OF TD EDOUARD, WITH DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CIG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF E TX
ALONG/S OF I-20, MUCH OF N LA, AND PORTIONS OF SRN AR. THE CIGS
SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF (IF AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AT ALL) AT
MLU/ELD, BUT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT
LFK/TYR/GGG/SHV BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO EXPAND N INTO DEEP E TX, AND WILL PERSIST AT LFK THROUGH
A BETTER PART OF THE DAY BEFORE THE REMNANT CENTER DRIFTS FARTHER
NW INTO ECNTRL TX. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP AND SHIFT NNW ACROSS PORTIONS OF N LA/E TX, AND HAVE
TEMPOED IN SHRA MENTION WITH REDUCED VSBYS/WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS
FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
ALSO AFFECT THESE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SOME LINGERING CU/AC WITH
ACCOMPANYING CIRRUS CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ECNTRL AND DEEP E TX, POSSIBLY AFFECTING TYR/LFK. LOW MVFR CIGS
SHOULD ALSO REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF E TX LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, SPREADING FARTHER N AND E INTO WRN LA/EXTREME
SW AR BY/AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. SE WINDS 8-13KTS TODAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-30KTS OVER E TX, WILL DIMINISH TO
3-7KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS AS THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THIS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 75 96 76 / 30 0 20 0
MLU 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 97 71 95 70 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 91 74 92 74 / 50 60 50 0
GGG 93 74 95 73 / 30 10 40 0
LFK 88 73 94 73 / 80 40 40 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ149-152-165-166.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...15
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